Mere threat of another shutdown will do lasting damage to federal workforce

WASHINGTON: For federal workers, these intervening weeks between the end of the longest partial government shutdown in US history and the looming Feb 15 deadline for funding the government might seem like a temporary reprieve. They’re at work, their pay cheques are back on track and they’re busy catching up on work that went unfi nished during the 35- day furlough.

But research by management experts shows that the threat of imminent uncertainty at work - such as a furlough, a layoff or other stressful workplace event - can be just as fraught to workers as the event itself.

“Psychologically, they’re exactly the same thing - the threat of the event happening and the actual event happening,” said Anthony Wheeler, a management professor at West Chester University in Pennsylvania who has studied workers who have undergone the traumas of furloughs as well as the threat of a layoff.

“The more an organisation announces something is going to happen, the more that gets ‘decoupled’ from the event itself,” he explains.

In other words, the barrage of media coverage, tweets from President Donald Trump, communication from their bosses and chatter about the pending deadline surrounding the State of the Union address can make the threat feel just as real. In Trump’s speech Tuesday night, it came up again: “Congress has 10 days left to pass a bill that will fund our government, protect our homeland, and secure our very dangerous southern border.”

Said Wheeler: “The announcements become shocks themselves.”

Research, he said, has found similarities between furloughs and layoffs, even if layoffs mean a more permanent loss of income and job security, while a furlough is temporary.

“The psychological underpinnings are the same because as an individual, it’s causing you to think you have something to lose,” Wheeler said.

“We as humans have this bucket of resources,” he said, such as our levels of optimism or feeling of control. “So whether it’s a merger or a furlough, it’s called the threat of loss. People are fearful of losing their resources.” It can also prompt an organisation’s best people to leave. In studies of state workers before and after a furlough, and nurses before and after a hospital system merger (which brought with it a threat of layoffs), the announcement of the event had as strong of an impact on the best-performing employees’ intention to leave - or their actual departures - as the event itself, Wheeler said.

“What we found is high performers who perceive they have job options are going to leave, and they are going to leave quickly,” he said.

Other studies show that now, after less than two weeks back in the workplace, federal workers are still suffering from the side effects of the last shutdown.

Lisa Baranik, a management professor at the University at Albany in New York, studied what happened after the 16- day shutdown in 2013. For up to five weeks after it ended, the effects lingered among employees.