West braces for Turkey’s possible expulsion of 10 envoys

ANKARA: Turkey’s relations with Western allies edged Monday toward their deepest crisis of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 19-year rule as world capitals braced for Ankara’s possible expulsion of ambassadors from the US and nine other countries.

The lira touched new historic lows ahead of a cabinet meeting that could prove fateful to Turkey’s economic and diplomatic standing for the coming months — and possibly years, analysts say.

The cabinet session will address Erdogan’s decision Saturday to declare the Western envoys ‘persona non grata’ for their joint statement in support of jailed civil society leader, Osman Kavala.

Expulsion orders are officially issued by foreign ministries and none of the Western capitals had reported receiving any by early Monday. Some analysts said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and a few other cabinet members were still trying to talk Erdogan out of following through on his declaration and to change his mind.

But the Turkish lira — a gauge of both investor confidence and political stability — lost more than one percent in value on fears of an effective break in Ankara’s relations with its main allies and most important trading partners.

“Typically, the countries whose ambassadors have been kicked out retaliate with tit-fortat expulsions, potentially in a coordinated manner,” Eurasia Group’s Europe director Emre Peker said.

“Restoring high-level diplomatic relations after such a spat would prove challenging.”

The crisis started when the embassies of the United States, Germany, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden issued a highly unusual statement last Monday calling for Kavala’s release.

The 64-year-old philanthropist and businessman has been in jail without a conviction since 2017.

Supporters view Kavala as an innocent symbol of the growing intolerance of political dissent Erdogan developed after surviving a failed military putsch in 2016. But Erdogan accuses Kavala of financing a wave of 2013 anti-government protests and then playing a role in the coup attempt.

Kavala’s case could prompt the Council of Europe human rights watchdog to launch its first disciplinary hearings against Turkey at a four-day meeting ending on Dec 2.