UK’s 4Q GDP lower than expected
UK GDP in December was down to minus 0.1 per cent on a monthly comparison. Its 4Q GDP was down to minus 0.3 per cent, worse than consensus’ expectations. On Friday, retail sales gained 3.4 per cent.
UK inflation remained at 4.0 per cent in January on an annual basis. However, this data missed expectations of 4.1 per cent.
US consumer prices rose 0.3 per cent in January on a monthly basis. Core prices gained 0.4 per cent, beating expectations. Annual inflation rose 3.1 per cent, exceeding expectations.
US retail sales slid to minus 0.8 per cent in January compared to 0.4 per cent gains in the previous month. Excluding auto sales, core retail sales plunged to minus 0.6 per cent.
US producer prices rose 0.3 per cent in January, surpassing expectations, after showing minus 0.1 per cent decline in December. Core prices gained 0.5 per cent, exceeding forecast.
For the past two weeks, there has been a sign of fund moving out from gold to the crude market. But the WTI Crude prices almost reached US$80 per barrel before slowing down. The gold market recovered above US$2,000 per ounce on Friday.
Technical forecast
US dollar/Japanese yen rose above 150 last week but slowed down. The market might fall due to technical correction and also fear of an intervention from the Bank of Japan. We expect the range to weaken and reach 148 while resistance might emerge at 150.50.
Euro/US dollar bounced off 1.07 and it might rise in the near future. We forecast the trend might stay at 1.0750 o reach 1.09. The overall market momentum is strong and likely to make recovery in the next one or two weeks.
British pound/US dollar saw strong support at 1.255. The market is prone to make a recovery. We expect the overall range to trade from 1.255 to 1.27. Risk control is advised in case the trend breaks beneath 1.255.
Gold prices declined to US$1,984 per ounce last week and settled at US$2,013 per ounce on Friday. We predict the market might trade sideways in consolidation and stay resilient beneath US$2,025 per ounce. The overall range is targeted at US$1,985 to US$2,025 per ounce but prone to wane.
Focus might be on WTI Crude prices. Observe the counterbalance of gold and WTI prices. We expect the initial range to trade within US$76 to US$80 per barrel. Piercing above the US$80 per barrel will likely reach US$84 per barrel.
Silver prices made a strong recovery from US$22 per ounce and settled at US$23.40 per ounce on Friday. We expect an uptrend in the market and trade from US$23 to US$24 per ounce. We foresee more interest in buying silver than gold as the market adjust with the WTI Crude market.
Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives failed to cross over RM4,000 per metric tonne and slid after the rollover period. The market will likely to consolidate pending any positive catalyst. May 2024 contract closed at RM3,806 per metric tonne on Friday. We forecast the market might re-test RM3,8730 per metric tonne and rebound. Topside resistance might emerge at RM3,880 per metric tonne.