US preliminary 4Q GDP misses expectations
Fundamental outlook
THE prelim GDP for US economy grew 3.2 per cent in 4Q, missing forecast at 3.3 per cent. The dollar firmed up against major European currencies and buying interest rose again in stock markets.
US durable goods for January plunged to minus 6.1 per cent, the worst recorded since April 2020. Excluding auto sales, order for core durable goods fell to minus 0.3 per cent, the worst recorded since February 2022.
China manufacturing PMI gained 49.1 in February, matching forecast. Caixin manufacturing PMI grew to 50.9 in February, beating consensus’ expectations.
Eurozone inflation remained strong as February report grew 2.6 per cent from a year ago. Core inflation gained 3.1 per cent on an annual basis, surpassing expectations.
German prelim consumer prices rose 0.4 per cent in February. This data is the best recorded since April 2023.
Technical forecast
US dollar/Japanese yen dipped on Thursday. We reckoned the market will move into bear trend within the range of 149 to 151.
Euro/US dollar saw a bearish pattern on Friday as day-chart ducks down. We project the trend will sink lower while moving within 1.07 to 1.085. Risk control is advised if it goes beyond 1.085.
British pound/US dollar fell below 1.27. We forecast the market might wane as the resistance emerges at 1.268. Overall range is expected at 1.25 to 1.268 as demand slows down. Unwinding activity is expected to occur.
Gold prices pierced above US$2,040 per ounce last week and settled at US$2,082 per ounce on Friday. We will predict the range to be trading on upside potential from US$2,060 to US$2,100 per ounce. It is essential to observe the WTI as a counter-balance force in the market.
WTI Crude prices broke above US$78 per barrel last week. It is crucial to observe the WTI trend as the market is prone to rise further. We expect the trend to trade from US$78 to US$84 per barrel. However, the simultaneous uptrend in gold and WTI might deliver a punt on the dollar index as a result of flight-to-quality markets.
Silver prices have proven the strong demand at US$22.40 per ounce. The market is prone to rise from US$22.50 to US$23.50 per ounce. The trend is bullish and should follow the gold market in recovery. Risk control is still advised.
Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives regained steady momentum last week. The market may encounter some pressure this week and move into consolidation. May 2024 Futures settled at RM3,964 per metric tonne on Friday. Moving forward, the market might sit tight on RM3,900 per metric tonne support and topside resistance is expected at RM4,050 per metric tonne if the uptrend moves in our forecast.