Exciting tussle likely in six states
THE main prize for parties contesting in Malaysia’s general election is the Dewan Rakyat and its 222 seats, but also important is control of the country’s 13 state assemblies.
The balance of power has never shifted in Parliament throughout the country’s 13 general elections. Since Merdeka, the Alliance – which later became Barisan Nasional – has enjoyed an uninterrupted reign at the federal level.
Things get much more interesting when it comes to the tussle for control of state governments.
Since 1957, political power has changed hands 19 times in seven states, namely in Kelantan (1959, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1990); Terengganu (1959, 1961, 1999, 2004); Penang (1969, 1972, 2008); Sabah (1990, 1994); Selangor (2008); Kedah (2008, 2013); and Perak (2008, 2009).
Up for grabs this time around will be 12 state governments. Sarawak is not included as the state holds its state elections separately, the last one being in 2016.
Pakatan Rakyat is in power in Selangor and Penang, PAS holds Kelantan while Barisan rules in the remaining nine states.
Many analysts and observers feel that Barisan does not appear to be in danger of losing power in Parliament.
They have widely divergent views, though, on which of the 12 states will the winds of change blow this time around.
In any case, many agree that most of the action will take place in Selangor, Johor, Kedah, Sabah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
Pakatan Rakyat wrested Selangor from Barisan in 2008 when it won 36 of the 56 state seats. It did even better in 2013 when it won 44 state seats.
The exit of PAS from Pakatan Rakyat has left a gaping hole though which the Opposition pact’s successor Pakatan Harapan is struggling to plug.
PAS has 13 seats, most of them Malay-majority. Despite an internal split that gave birth to Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah), PAS still has a formidable and loyal support base in Selangor.
It won’t be easy for Pakatan’s Malay-led or Malay-based parties, namely PKR, Amanah and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Pribumi) to wrest PAS’ seats.
PAS will also cause problems in some of PKR’s 13 state seats which are mostly Malay-majority.
There are many PAS members and supporters in these PKR seats, says Dr Muhammad Asri Mohd Ali, a Research Fellow with the National Council of Professors.
With PAS now independent from Pakatan, it is not likely that their supporters will vote for PKR.
“Without PAS, PKR especially is in trouble in Selangor and this raises the possibility of a hung state assembly,” says Dr Muhammad Asri.
A hung assembly means no party has enough seats to form a simple majority. If this happens, PAS could become kingmaker in Selangor.
Johor is next. The chances of the state falling to Pakatan is slim but Johor still gets a lot of attention because it is where the Opposition is sending many of their big guns to contest against top MCA leaders.
Pakatan is also eyeing 73 Felda settlements which contribute votes to at least 15 parliamentary seats in Johor, a huge voting block for Barisan.
To make inroads into the Felda seats, the Opposition will need to ride on the back of their often promised “Malay tsunami” wave of discontent.
However, there have been few, if any clear signs of this so far.
In Kedah, the home state of Pakatan chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, observers are closely watching how big a deal the much touted “Dr M” factor will turn out to be.
Kedahans are also experienced when it comes to change. The state fell to Pakatan Rakyat in 2008, but voters sent Pakatan packing and gave power back to Barisan in 2013.
“Kedahans are used to voting for change, so it will be interesting to see who they will go for this time around,” said Assoc Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia’s School of Social Sciences.
Another state where voters are experienced when it comes to change is Terengganu, which PAS briefly ruled from 1959 to 1961 and for one full term from 1999 to 2004.
Barisan has a majority of just two seats in the 32-seat state assembly, with Barisan holding 17 seats, PAS 14 and PKR 1.
The slightest shift in voter sentiments could tip the balance of power in the state.
Dr Muhammad Asri, however, says he does not see PAS winning Terengganu.
“While PAS support is strong in the state, Barisan has put in a lot of work to shore up support, and if there is minimal infighting within Umno, Barisan should be able to retain the state,” he says.
In neighbouring Kelantan, the deciding factor could turn out to be out-of-state voters.
Of the state’s roughly one million voters, up to 200,000 or 20% are Kelantanese who live and work outside the state but return to their hometowns to cast their ballots.
A portion of Kelantan’s out-ofstate voters have fixed allegiances, being either PAS or Umno supporters.
The rest are the undecided, whose support may end up determining whether PAS remains in power or whether Umno finally regains control of Kelantan after 27 long years.
Sabah, meanwhile, will supply East Malaysia’s share of the political fireworks in this general election.
Barisan looks set to retain its “fixed deposit” but the emergence of Parti Warisan Sabah led by former Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal as the state’s key Opposition force will likely cause some damage to Barisan.