Troubled by ‘quiet’ Kedah
KEDAH is infamous for its blazing hot weather and the race to secure the state in the 14th General Election will be even hotter.
For a state that the Opposition has predicted will fall to them, Kedah appears too quiet, and the dormant ground is causing some ripples among politicians on both sides of the divide, as they cannot tell what it means.
Although Pakatan Harapan substitutes the lack of manpower and machinery with the “oomph” factor, some believe the battle will be mainly between the blue and green parties.
“People ask me if I’m worried. Actually I am very worried, not about Amanah or Bunga (the local name for Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia) but about PAS.
“If you know Kedah, you will know that it has always been about Umno and PAS. I take PAS very seriously,” says Sungai Tiang assemblyman Datuk Suraya Yaakob.
Umno and PAS are the only two parties with an extensive network and machinery on the ground.
Kedah Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Bashah Md Hanipah predicts Barisan Nasional will take 30 of the 36 state seats along with 13 of 15 parliamentary seats, including the “hot seat” of Langkawi.
“We have done several surveys and we are confident of holding on to Kedah and the Langkawi parliamentary seat. However, we do need to focus on winning over the younger voters,” he adds.
Kedah has 1.2 million voters, of whom about 400,000 are aged below 40.
In the 2013 General Election, Kedah Barisan dethroned the then PAS-led Pakatan Rakyat state government, winning 21 state seats. The ruling coalition also took the majority share of the parliamentary seats, winning 10.
By comparison, Barisan only managed to win four parliamentary and 14 state seats in the 2008 general election.
However at this point, it would be unwise to disregard the Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad factor, considering the state is his home ground.
Dr Mahathir’s Pribumi has already zoomed in on 14 state seats to contest in, despite being a new player in the game.
Pribumi deputy president Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir is well aware that he and the other Pakatan component parties are up for a really tough fight but they are “feeling upbeat”.
“Sentiment on the ground is at a point where it appears they cannot wait for elections to be called, and we are feeling positive that we can do it this time around,” he says.
It is believed that Mukhriz will either contest his previous parliamentary seat of Jerlun, his previous state seat of Ayer Hitam, or possibly both seats simultaneously.
His father Dr Mahathir is widely rumoured to stand in the parliamentary seat of Langkawi, a place he is credited with developing.
Some, however, believe he may return to his long-time parliamentary seat of Kubang Pasu, or even take on the big guns in Putrajaya by contesting there instead.
There is speculation that Umno’s Mohd Rawi Abdul Hamid may be moved from the Ayer Hangat state seat to contest Langkawi against Dr Mahathir.
Kedahans are known for remembering and appreciating those who contributed to their development, and Dr Mahathir’s contributions to the state during his 22-year tenure as prime minister means people here are still singing his praises.
A story is told of a certain lawmaker who was very vocal against father and son during the height of the Mentri Besar crisis here in 2016.
His statements upset the locals, so much so that when he returned on one of his visits to his constituency, some of them banded together to stop him from entering.
PAS is a strong factor – with an estimated 170,000 members, its largest numbers of members in any state is Kedah.
Taking a drive beyond Alor Setar into the Malay heartland of Sik and Baling will take one past houses painted in green. Even the roofs are green.
State PAS chief Dr Fakhruddin Syeikh Fakhrurrazi appears unperturbed by Pakatan, saying that only about 3% of their members left to join Amanah.
He describes the Invoke study predicting the nationwide defeat of PAS as syiok sendiri or self-serving.
“PAS has contested every general election. We have never ended up with zero seats.”
The newly enforced redelineation will also play a factor in determining the outcome of the election here, with seven parliamentary seats having undergone changes.
In Langkawi, the number of voters has increased to 37,645 from 37,536 in the last election, while in Pokok Sena the number of voters dropped to 78,998 compared to 80,714 previously.
Alor Setar, held by PKR’s Gooi Hsiao-Leung, will now have a total of 73,687 voters compared to 69,009 in the last election.
The Alor Merah, Tongkang Yard and Tandop electoral districts with 3,653 voters have also been transferred to Alor Setar, leaving Kuala Kedah, held by PKR’s Azman Ismail, with 91,478 voters compared to 95,328 in the last polls.
The largest transfer of voters of 8,145 is from Merbok to the Sungai Petani parliamentary constituency. Padang Serai now has 74,621 voters compared to 74,095 voters in the last election.
As most of the transfers involve PKR’s seats, it remains to be seen how this will impact Pakatan’s chances of winning.
Neither Pakatan nor Pribumi have been registered as yet by the Registrar of Societies (RoS).
If status quo remains when Parliament is dissolved, Pribumi candidates will have to contest under other party tickets.
According to election rules, campaign posters can only feature the faces of candidates and their party presidents, which means that without RoS registration, Dr Mahathir’s face cannot be featured on the posters here as Pribumi president or Pakatan chairman.
This may not augur well for Pakatan’s plans to pull voters.
“We need Dr Mahathir to pull the rural Malay voters. His name carries weight; we can feel it when we distribute pamphlets of him in the kampung.
“People like Amanah president Mohammad Sabu and PKR president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah do not have that effect,” adds Pakatan secretary in Kedah Dr Abdul Rahman Ahmad.