Mixed opinions on outcome in Melaka

MELAKA’S Barisan Nasional and Opposition are adopting the Latin adage “Age Quod Agis” (whatever you do, do it well) this general election.

As Barisan depends on its loyalists in rural areas to deliver the votes to the ruling coalition, the Opposition is confident that negative national issues would bring the winds of change to the state.

Political pundits are placing their bets on Barisan to maintain power in the state but the coalition should forget trying to wrest the Opposition stronghold of Kota Melaka parliamentary seat by capitalising on DAP infighting.

They also believe that the unwavering support to Barisan by the rural voters, will put paid to PKRlinked think tank Invoke Malaysia’s prediction of Melaka having a hung assembly.

The experts predict that the unwavering backing of rural voters will help Barisan maintain status quo by winning 21 out of the 28 state seats, and four out of the six parliamentary seats Melaka Barisan has strengthened its presence in parliamentary constituencies like Jasin, Masjid Tanah and Tangga Batu, where issues such as the rising cost of living will not sway many voters towards the Opposition.

However, other analysts have mixed opinions given the current geopolitical landscape, warning that Barisan leaders should not take voters for granted, especially in strongholds like Alor Gajah and, to a certain degree, Jasin.

They have also classified state seats like Paya Rumput, Klebang, Rumbai, Machap, and Telok Mas as risky ones for Barisan.

Analysts believe that the Bachang state seat that was previously contested by Gerakan would be handed over to Umno following the redelineation by the Election Commission.

They say that Umno has a better prospect of winning Pengkalan Batu which has 65% Malay voters, adding that the chances of Barisan wresting Bukit Baru and Duyong from the Opposition are strong.

An earlier feud between DAP lawmakers may not be advantageous for Barisan in the Banda Hilir, Kesidang, Ayer Keroh and Kota Laksamana state seats because urban voters are seen as being tight with the Opposition.

In July last year, Kota Melaka MP Sim Tong Him and three state assemblymen – former Melaka DAP chairman Goh Leong San (Duyong), Lim Jak Wong (Bachang) and Chin Choong Seong (Kesidang) – quit the party over a longstanding feud with party secretarygeneral Lim Guan Eng.

Lawyer-turned-political strategist S. Rajah says it is unlikely that Kota Melaka’s voters will choose differently despite DAP’s internal strife.

Rajah, who has been studying Melaka politics as an affiliate member of PAS since the 2013 general election, says the majority of the urban electorate is influenced by national issues and unhappy with the development taking place in Kota Laksamana, which does not directly benefit them.

He adds that for Barisan to count on its rural loyalists, it must heed their wishes, for example, retain incumbents like Bemban assemblyman Datuk Ng Choon Koon and Gadek assemblyman Datuk M.S. Mahadevan, who are both popular with the voters.

He said the voters want both the incumbents to be retained as they have served them well including attending kenduris and even visiting constituents who were hospitalised.

He doesn’t discount the possibility of first-time voters swinging to the Opposition, given that Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia is making inroads into rural areas and may field a big gun in the Alor Gajah parliamentary constituency.

Chief Minister Datuk Seri Idris Haron, says Rajah, is a technocrat but has a soft spot for his reportedly controversial aides who may end up diminishing his achievements in the eyes of the grassroots.

Rajah says that Malaccans want Idris’ aides and secretaries to do away with their “White House mentality” of restricting access, and instead focus on elevating the image of the Chief Minister, who has spearheaded green technology adoption and driven the state’s tourism industry to greater heights.

On the Pakatan Harapan side, its state secretary Khoo Poay Tiong reveals that the Opposition’s ceramah will focus on issues and alleged scandals surrounding Idris’ aides as talking points.

Khoo also claims that Idris is losing popularity among the grassroots owing to his inaction on the grouses against his aides.

Still, Pakatan may have difficulty finding fault with his accomplishments.

The Chief Minister is known for being jovial, yet full of zeal for his job, a stickler for discipline who keeps civil servants on their toes and does not hesitate to expedite private initiatives to develop the state.

Under his administration, Melaka has attracted RM22.5bil in investments since 2013 and tourist arrivals hit 16.7 million last year, up from 12 million in 2016.

Melaka’s GDP, meanwhile, increased from RM27.9bil in 2013 to RM33.2bil in 2016.

Under the People’s Housing Project and the Affordable Housing Project, the state has built 6,309 houses and the Federal Government 3,778.

The state’s unemployment rate dropped to 0.7% last year from 0.9% in 2016, while the per capita annual income of Melakans rose to RM41,363 in 2016, up from RM35,699 in 2013.

Speculation is also rife that former chief minister Tan Sri Mohd Ali Rustam is making a comeback bid for the Bukit Katil parliamentary seat, now renamed Hang Tuah Jaya after the recent redelineation.

He has been active in the constituency despite losing to PKR vice-president Shamsul Iskandar Mohd Akim in 2013.

Observers give him a good chance of victory, especially if PKR swaps the seat with Pribumi.