In pole position with caring MB

THOSE who watched Sholay ,the greatest Hindi movie ever made and released in 1975, must remember Basanti, the feisty village belle who made a living driving a horse-cart.

Most remember one particular scene in the village of Ramgarh where she rushes to help shabby crooks-turned village saviours Jai and Veeru, who were at the mercy of sadistic bandit king Gabbar and staring down the barrel of guns of his band of dacoits.

Millions of Sholay fans still live and breathe the characters in the movie and it was no surprise when an acquaintance likened that scene to what is likely to happen in this general election in Negri Sembilan.

“PAS will do a Basanti and help Barisan do better in three-cornered fights this time around,” quips Jinda over a glass of piping hot teh

halia tarik at Lingam’s Curry

House.

There is no doubt that Barisan enjoys the lion’s share of support in Negri Sembilan although it has somewhat declined the past decade.

Barisan is still in pole position, basically because it has a charismatic leader in Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan or Tok Mat who delivers the goods – at least as far as Umno is concerned.

In the 2008 polls, Umno lost only three of the 22 state seats it contested. Five years later, it won all but one. Umno also swept all five parliamentary seats it contested in 2008 and 2013.

The three-term Mentri Besar, a former corporate figure, is popular and hands-on when it comes to happenings in his state.

From tourism arrivals, investments, academic performances, human capital development, housing and infrastructure to consumer essentials, he has it all at his fingertips.

Mentri besar since 2004, he has brought sweeping changes to the landscape and skyline of this state, which is now embarking on the ambitious 30-year-old Malaysian

Vision Valley project.

Even the state’s bank balances are healthy unlike before.

But Tok Mat is not Superman. While he has toiled for the state for 14 years, he has been unable to stop the tide of support for the Opposition, particularly DAP, since 2008.

Many predict that the going will only get tougher this time around for the state Barisan although the coalition is confident of securing two-thirds majority or winning at least 24 of the state’s 36 state seats.

Higher cost of living, the Goods and Services Tax, 1Malaysia Development Bhd-related issues and developments in Felda will determine the voting pattern.

Many may not realise it but Negri Sembilan has several large Felda schemes within its boundary.

So despite the feel-good factor in Negri Sembilan, where the state had been performing phenomenally, it has even been in the top three in national examinations for a few years now and having a unique housing policy to benefit those in the lower income group, issues at the federal level will still translate into more votes for the Opposition.

Nevertheless, one underlying factor that should work in Barisan’s favour is that there will be at least three-cornered fights in all 36 state constituencies as PAS has vowed to fight Pakatan Harapan and Barisan for every vote.

In Barisan, Umno will field candidates in 22 seats, MCA (10), MIC and Gerakan (two each).

Pakatan’s PKR will contest in 12

followed by DAP (11), Amanah (seven) and Pribumi (six).

With sabotage a possibility for any political party when an incumbent is dropped, the state Umno is expected to retain at least two-thirds of their candidates.

On the other hand, MCA, which got a drubbing in 2013 when it lost in all 10 seats it contested, will be hoping for a change in its fortunes with eight new faces.

The DAP, will also field almost all of its incumbents with rotations expected in two seats. Two of its candidates will also be new faces.

PKR is also likely to see more new faces this time around but likely to retain two of its three assemblymen.

Amanah’s candidates will comprise those who contested under the PAS banner previously while Pribumi will be represented by new faces.

To win, Barisan, Pakatan or PAS will have to win at least 19 seats.

Although many observers concur the going will not be easy for Barisan due to the split in Malay votes, it still should form the next government.

Barisan, they feel, already have 15 seats in the bag – Gemas, Gemencheh, Linggi, Bagan Pinang, Kota, Paroi, Rantau, Chembong, Senaling, Seri Menanti, Juasseh, Palong, Serting, Sg Lui and Pertang.

But Pakatan is not too far behind and can claim victory in 11 constituencies, although, state Pakatan chief Aminuddin Harun has said that they are already the government in waiting with 19 seats in the bag.

DAP, which will be contesting 11 seats is expected to win at least nine seats hands down.

Since 2008, Seremban Jaya (known as Senawang before the redelineation), Mambau, Rahang, Bukit Kepayang, Lobak, Nilai, Bahau, Lukut and Repah have become DAP fortresses.

Even Temiang could tilt in DAP’s favour due to some internal problems in MCA. PKR should win comfortably in Sri Tanjung (previously known as Port Dickson).

The outcome in Chuah and Chennah, currently held by Pakatan will also depend on the candidates fielded.

If state Opposition chief Anthony Loke decides to defend Chennah, then he should not have any problems retaining the DAP seat.

But tables are set to be turned in Chuah with state MCA chief Datuk Seri King Lim Chin Fui now ahead as PKR may field an outsider in place of two-term assemblyman Chai Tong Chai.

So with the score at 16-12, voters in the eight remaining constituencies which are all Malay majority seats will decide who forms the next government in Negri Sembilan.

PAS’ decision to go it alone has come as a blessing for Barisan.

Just like Basanti who came to the aid of Jai and Veeru.