Colourful battle on the cards
FIERCE multi-cornered fights are on the cards in Kelantan.
PAS is taking a defensive position, as Pakatan Harapan goes on the offensive and Barisan Nasional tries again to wrest control of the state.
In its defensive mode, PAS is playing on Islamist sentiments with its “rise and defend” battle cry to maintain its grip on the state it has ruled for six consecutive terms since 1990.
With hardcore supporters rallying behind PAS, it is tough for rival parties to make inroads into the Islamist party’s stronghold.
However, as more than 50% of the 14 parliamentary and 45 state seats were won by a marginal vote-majority in the last general election, the goal posts are wide open for other players to attack the grey seats in their bid to alter the balance of power.
Amanah vice-president Husam Musa has started firing salvos at the PAS government, as the new party aims to rule Kelantan if Pakatan Harapan succeeds in wresting control of the state.
Although the Kelantan government filed multiple lawsuits against Husam for allegedly making wild allegations, he is determined to continue digging dirt on PAS in the interest of the rakyat.
In the last GE, PAS retained its hold on Kelantan by winning 32 state seats, while Umno secured 12 seats and PKR one.
In GE14, Amanah is contesting 23 out of the 45 state seats, while Pribumi and PKR are contesting 13 and nine seats respectively. Pribumi is contesting in half of the 14 parliamentary seats, followed by Amanah (five) and PKR (two).
In the peninsula, all Pakatan component parties are contesting under one logo against the PAS-led Gagasan Sejahtera and Barisan.
State Pribumi chief Datuk Kamaruddin Md Noor admits it would be tough making inroads into PAS strongholds in Kelantan but he is positive they can woo the fence sitters, and youths (who make up 60% of the 1.05 million voters).
While Umno and PAS are competing to win the hearts of outstation voters, Amanah president Mohamed Sabu has advised them not to return home to vote as a sign of protest. Outstation voters make up about 9.2% of the total electorate in the state.
While Amanah goes on the offensive to smear mud on PAS, Barisan is using its proven track record to score points with the voters.
Barisan is flashing its report card showing its massive contribution towards the development of the state to impress upon voters that it could take the state to greater heights if given the mandate to rule.
PAS has held Kelantan on its own from 1959 to 1974, and together with Barisan from 1974 to 1977. Barisan succeeded in wresting control of the state in 1978, but lost it in 1990. Barisan came close to winning back Kelantan in 2004 when it clinched 21 state seats against PAS’ 24.
Umno is now riding on a red wave in its bid to take the state from PAS in GE14.
On the last day of the state legislative assembly meeting on March 27, Barisan elected representatives, all of whom are Umno members, came clad in red baju melayu to showcase their readiness to trigger the red wave to wrest control of Kelantan.
Kelantan Barisan chief Datuk Mustapa Mohamed, who won Kok Lanas by a mere 47-vote majority, says they are united to ensure a brighter future for the state.
Kelantan PAS secretary Datuk Che Abdullah Mat Nawi retorts, however, that Umno can only take the state over their dead bodies.
PKR’s sole elected representative Mohd Roslan Puteh doesn’t care about red or green (PAS), as he is standing up for light blue (the colour of his party flag).
The battlefield
The last GE saw PAS making a clean sweep of all but one state seat, namely Pengkalan Kubor, in the northern terrain encompassing the Tumpat, Pengkalan Chepa, Kota Baru, Pasir Mas, Rantau Panjang, Kubang Kerian and Bachok parliamentary constituencies.
Barisan has only one tiny fort in the north – Pengkalan Kubor – that it won by a 2,635 vote-majority in the 2014 by-election compared with the 1,736 vote-majority in GE13.
Incumbent Pengkalan Kubor assemblyman, former teacher Mat Razi Mat Ail, hopes to trigger a blue tsunami in northern Kelantan.
Barisan’s strongholds are Jeli and Gua Musang where it swept clean all the six state constituencies in the two parliamentary seats held by Umno heavyweights Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.
Of the seven parliamentary constituencies in the south, PAS won only Pasir Puteh and Kuala Krai.
PAS lost Tumpat and Kuala Krai when incumbents Datuk Kamaruddin Jaffar and Dr Mohd Hatta Ramli jumped ship to join PKR and Amanah respectively. Both candidates won by a marginal majority, respectively securing 55.8% and 51.2% of the votes.
Overall, PAS won 32 state seats while Barisan secured 12, and PKR garnered only the Guchil state seat. As for parliamentary seats, PAS won nine and Barisan won five.
PAS’ risky state seats are Kelaboran, Wakaf Bharu, Tendong, Chetok, Gual Periok, Bukit Tuku (renamed Apam Putra following redelineation), Tawang, Perupok (renamed Pantai Irama), Jelawat, Melor, Kemahang, Limbongan, Gaal, Pulai Chondong, Temangan, Kemuning, Mengkebang and Manek Urai where it garnered less than 55.9% of the total votes in the last GE.
PPP, which contested the Manek Urai state seat in the last GE, will not be contesting this time, says state PPP chairman Datuk Nik Sapeia Nik Yusof.
Shaky seats for Umno are Pengkalan Kubor, Kok Lanas, Gual Ipoh, Selising, Semerak, Bukit Bunga, Air Lanas, Dabong and Galas.
PKR’s chances of retaining its sole seat in Guchil also seemed bleak, as it only clinched 49.9% of the vote in the last GE.
PAS’ grey parliamentary seats are Pasir Mas, Bachok, Rantau Panjang and Pasir Puteh. Umno’s risky parliamentary seats are Ketereh, Tanah Merah and Machang.
Election issues
PAS vice-president Datuk Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah has questioned the redelineation exercise, saying it breached administrative, land office, district, and local council boundaries in some cases.
One such case was noted in Wakaf Bharu, where two polling districts, namely Alor Pasir and Kota Kubang Labu, were relocated beyond the local boundary to Pasir Pekan.
PAS won Wakaf Bharu by a marginal majority, garnering only 51.6% of the votes while Mentri
Besar Datuk Ahmad Yakob won the Pasir Pekan state seat by a handsome majority (61.6% of the votes).
PAS supporters have also complained of phantom voters in Bukit Panau, Kemahang and Gual Ipoh.
Bukit Panau PAS election director Saari Hamzah says that 316 names that were ordered to be removed after a hearing on Dec 14 reappeared in the 2017 fourth quarter electoral roll released in February.
He led a group of villagers to lodge a police report as it was proven during the hearing that the affected voters were outsiders.
State PAS Youth information chief Nazman Che Iberahim claims they have spotted phantom voters in other constituencies also. “We will fight this,” he says. PAS will also capitalise on the petroleum royalty issue and GST to attack Barisan, while the latter will harp on the tea-coloured tap water and flash floods, among others, in trading blows.
PAS has conveniently put a stop to the orang asli blockades in Gua Musang; logging, land clearing, and mining activities have temporarily stopped.
On March 6, State Forestry Department director Datuk Zahari Ibrahim announced that 17 logging permit holders and five jungle plantation operators have voluntarily taken a break, pending the state government’s next course of action.
Zahari says the department will review the matter together with the state government because the logging companies had inked longterm agreements.
Unresolved issues would unlikely tip the balance of power if the momentum is not great enough to significantly swing votes.