A changed landscape
Given that Terengganu’s Ge13 result nearly ended in a stalemate, with Barisan nasional winning 17 state seats, a mere two-seat advantage over Pakatan Rakyat’s 15, both contenders feel they have a good chance of winning the east coast state this election.
The battle landscape, however, has changed since PAS, which currently has 14 of the 15 Opposition seats, has left the pact and formed Gagasan Sejahtera.
it is set to be a minimum threeway fight in all eight parliamentary and 32 state seats involving Barisan (31 Umno and one MCA), PAS, and Pakatan Harapan’s PKR, Parti Amanah negara (Amanah) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Pribumi).
But as loyalists of contending parties each shout out their support for their own candidates, they cannot ignore the deafening silence coming from the fence sitters who are said to be the real kingmakers in the coming polls.
invoke Malaysia says the parties can expect only a fraction of their hardcore members to vote for them and that they will have to work hard to win the support of a larger section of voters who may or may not support them.
Based on election Commission data gathered by invoke, the total voters in Terengganu number about 737,940 as of the last quarter of 2017.
Out of that, over 200,000 are new voters.
The rise could be attributed to the state government’s voter registration drive through its Aidilfitri aid and Dana Bakti Remaja programmes.
The programme offers applicants between RM200 and RM400 every year and being a registered voter is among the criteria.
Over 300,000 voters are political party members but, even so, invoke estimates that all parties can only depend on the 30% hardcore party members.
Dr nazli Aziz, deputy dean at Universiti Malaysia Terengganu’s school of social and economic development, says political parties need to change their strategies to garner support from youths and new voters as this group is less likely to fall for political bashing, rhetoric and mud-slinging.
They want to see solid proof; they find rhetoric and ceramah very tiring, he says.
Dr nazli adds that voters in this category are skilful information gatherers as a result of being iT-savvy.
Their votes will go to the party that can ensure a more secure future for them and solve basic problems such as job security, housing and the rise in cost of living, he says.
While the rest of Malaysia may view Terengganu as a laidback state, its voters are not to be messed with. Dr nazli says they are not afraid of a change in government, which actually shows their political maturity.
An example of this was when PAS conquered the state in 1999 by winning 28 out of the 32 seats and took seven of the eight parliamentary seats, with one going to PKR.
The score was reversed in the 2004 elections with Barisan sweeping all the parliamentary seats.
However, since then, Barisan support has eroded with each election.
in 2008, it received 55% of the votes in the state and in 2013, hung on to the state government with only 51% of the total vote and a razor-thin two-seat majority.
Going into Ge14, Barisan feels they can perform better than their previous outings following PAS’ exit from the opposition coalition.
Umno will be contesting all eight parliamentary seats in Terengganu, and 31 out of 32 state seats, while the state seat of Bandar, in Kuala Terengganu, will be contested by MCA.
Barisan believes the opposition votes will be split, thus giving them the upper hand in the expected three-cornered fights. The ruling party also has the might of their machinery behind them.
To their disadvantage, though, are the internal conflicts within Terengganu Umno, which seems never ending.
Terengganu has changed Mentris Besar twice since 2008, and rumours are rife that incumbent leader Datuk Seri Ahmad Razif Abdul Rahman will also be replaced after Ge14, if Barisan wins.
When asked about speculation that he will be moved from his Seberang Takir seat to a parliamentary seat, his answer was noncommittal.
“As a loyal party member, i will leave this decision to the discretion of the party president. i have no problems if the party wants to move me elsewhere,” he said.
While this seems to be a safe answer, critics say it is unbecoming of a party captain to give a less-than-convincing response and say it implies weak leadership on his part.
Pakatan Harapan is looking to exploit Barisan’s weaknesses in its state leadership, compounded by national issues like the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the 1Malaysia Development Berhad scandal, to win over voters.
1MDB may be too complex an issue to be understood by normal folk, but even the rural people are aware of it by now. However, the sting of the GST is truly felt and is blamed for the rising cost of goods. These issues cannot be ignored, acknowledges Terengganu PKR chief Azan ismail.
Azan also believes the break-up with PAS will not be detrimental to their chances in Terengganu.
“Actually, it is PAS that is losing support after the break-up. Their hardcore supporters are not happy to see their party seemingly working with their once kafir rivals, Umno.”
Azan adds that most opposition supporters would prefer to vote for a more coherent coalition like Pakatan, than a party like PAS which appears to be inconsistent in its stance in many things.
Although PAS may seem to be weaker now that it has chosen to walk alone, it is still a force to be reckoned with in the mainly Muslim conservative east coast of Malaysia.
Compared with Pakatan’s PKR, Amanah and Pribumi, PAS has better grassroots support in Terengganu as it has been around much longer.
PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang is still a respected leader, especially in Marang where he has been delivering Friday sermons for decades.
The former Terengganu Mentri Besar (1999 to 2004) is banking on youths in the state to lend the islamist party their support, just as they did almost 20 years before.
“i won’t be surprised to see this wave happening again,” he said at the closing of a recent public dialogue in Kuala Terengganu.
With all contenders supremely confident of their chances of emerging as the people’s champion, this sleepy east coast state famed for its islands and turtles is set to explode with the prospects of intense three-way battle royales in Ge14.