Shake-up on the horizon
THE majority of urban Chinese, including those who will be returning to Perak from other states, are likely to support Pakatan Harapan in the general election.
And now it seems that rural Malay voters who have been urbanised and working elsewhere may be following the trend as well, political analysts say.
“They could also be voting according to the party and not the candidate,” says Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman political science lecturer Teh Boon Teck.
“Those returning to their kampung will be trying to persuade and influence their parents to vote for Pakatan.
“They will use their parents’ livelihood and earnings, especially those who work in Felda oil palm estates, as a factor, especially with the current drop in price for the commodity.
“Barisan Nasional is doing its best to assist these folks; recently, they held events that sold daily goods at super low prices to the people. Nevertheless, a lot of these voters are still on the fence and will only decide at the last minute,” he adds.
Teh, however, cautions that Malay voters may still have reservations when it comes to supporting a Chinese candidate from the Opposition.
“If there’s a choice in a threecornered fight, they would rather choose PAS or abstain from voting.
“In the previous general election, DAP put a Malay candidate – Datuk Mohd Ariff Sabri Abdul Aziz – to contest the Raub parliamentary seat in Pahang and won. If it had been a Chinese, the outcome could have been different.”
Mohd Ariff won the seat against Datuk Hoh Khai Mun with a 2,814 majority.
Teh reckons they might still prefer a Malay candidate as they believe that “only a Malay candidate will protect and fight for their rights.”
“This is one reason why Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad formed Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Pribumi) to get more rural support.”
He adds that the current economy could be a factor for Malay voters.
“The turnout may not be high as expected because some who are working in urban areas may be reluctant to spend extra money to return to their hometown to vote.”
Teh maintains that Barisan could still form the state government in the election.
“This is especially true, after the redelineation exercise and the expected three-cornered fights in many of the seats.
Barisan holds 13 parliamentary seats while Pakatan has nine and PSM and PAS, one each.
At the state assembly, Barisan holds 31 out of 59 seats, with Pakatan having 24 (DAP 18, PKR five, Amanah one) and PAS, four.
Most of these 31 seats are in smaller towns and suburban areas.
A political observer, who declined to be named, believes Pakatan could get more rural Malay votes.
“Having attended some rallies organised by Pakatan, I feel there could be a shake-up among the rural voters. In one rally that was held in a Felda settlement, the locals seemed quite receptive to the presence of some DAP leaders,” he says.
He also feels that the sentiments of the Malay professionals and the middle working class, especially those who will be returning to the state to vote, have changed.
“The economy is not showing any signs of improvement. It can argue that it is a global thing but at the end of the day, if it affects voters and they are unhappy, they will turn to Pakatan,” he adds.
On the three-cornered fights between Barisan, Pakatan and PAS in the state, the observer believes that the support for the Islamic party could be decimated.
“Let’s look back to during the Reformasi era when there were just the three main Malay political parties – Umno, PKR and them in the peninsula. PAS was getting a lot of support because Malay voters believed that PKR was just like another Umno then.
“To the non-Umno supporters, it was the only other choice they could join and support to fight for the rights of the Muslims.
“There are members and supporters of PAS that are liberalminded. Most of them are now supporting Amanah and this has split the support for PAS,” he adds.
The observer says that with the addition of Pribumi in Pakatan, it could further split the votes for PAS.
“I am not saying they will be completely wiped out. They could still perhaps hang on to win one or two state seats like Selinsing and Gunung Semanggol,” he says.
Husin Din won the Selinsing state seat by an 809 majority while Mohd Zawawi Abu Hassan won Gunung Semanggol by a 1,405 majority.
A state Pakatan leader, who wished to remain anonymous, says their aim is to win 35 to 40 state seats to form the next state government.
“I feel the scenario is different now. The support for Barisan and Umno is unlike last time.
“In 2013, the difference in Malay support between Barisan and Pakatan was about 20%. Based on our polls, their support has shrunk and the gap is just 15% now,” he says.
“If we get a further 5% swing in votes, we can win. I think Dr Mahathir has the pull factor to get votes from government servants and rural folk.”
He too believes PAS will not have any impact on the election, even if it contests in all seats.
“Even if PAS has strong grassroots, their support constitutes just 20% to 25% of the total votes. They will become irrelevant,” he says.
But for engineer Mohd Safrul Safruddin, the 34-year-old from Parit says he would vote based on the candidate.
The father of three, who works in Putrajaya, prefers someone young, hardworking and has a vision for developing the constituency.
“The only place in Parit that’s considered to have changed and seen developments is Seri Iskandar. I want someone who can really bring changes to my hometown,” he says.
“Take for example the so-called Changkat Melintang Hospital there. To me, it is your standard health clinic and not a full-fledged hospital.
“The nearest hospitals with extensive facilities are either in Ipoh or Manjung, both being over 40km away.”
Barisan’s Mohd Zaim Abu Hasan defeated PAS’s Muhammad Ismi Mat Taib for the Parit parliamentary seat by a 4,497 majority.
Mohd Safrul says the next factor he would consider is the stability of the respective parties.
“I feel the party behind the respective candidates also needs to be strong. How else would they be able to support the candidate and carry out the manifesto?” he asks.
A trader from Manjoi, who declined to be named, says he would give his vote to whomever he feels is sincere, friendly and would work for the people.
“I do not want someone who makes fake promises. The country’s economy, the people’s livelihood and prices of petrol are also factors that could influence my decision,” the 40-year-old adds.
“I will admit it. In GE13, I’ve spoilt my vote for the parliamentary seat because I didn’t like either of the two candidates.”
He adds that he has no issues with the #UndiRosak campaign.
“People have the freedom to do what they want with their ballot. Spoiling is also an option,” he says.
“You can accuse me of not performing my responsibility but if you don’t trust the candidates who are standing in your constituency, it’s really difficult to support either one.”