China to study restrictions on US soybean imports

BEIJING: China is studying the potential impact of trade measures imposed on soybeans imported from the US, valued last year at US$13.9bil, according to people familiar with the matter.

Speculation is mounting over China’s response to US tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines announced last month. The Ministry of Commerce has been looking into the consequences of measures against US soybeans since January, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the information hasn’t been made public. That includes anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probes, they said.

Commodities are particularly exposed to escalating trade tensions between the world’s biggest economies. China has already started an anti-subsidy and anti-dumping investigation into US grain sorghum, less than two weeks after President Donald Trump announced tariffs on solar panels and washing machines.

The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting on Tuesday with some Chinese companies to get feedback, and no conclusions were reached, they said. Any final decision to take steps would be made by senior Chinese leadership.

The ministry held meetings recently with some importers and exporters to analyze trends and problems in the agricultural sector, but said it wasn’t to do with US-China trade frictions. Some companies raised the issue of trade and expressed concerns about the impact of agricultural imports, spokesman Gao Feng said at a press conference.

The US Soybean Export Council wasn’t invited to the meeting convened by the ministry with representatives from China’s importing and processing industries, Paul Burke, the Beijing-based North Asia regional director for the US group, said in an email.

The ministry “has been researching the implications on China and the Chinese crushing industry in the event US soybeans have restricted market access,” Burke said. “No decisions were made or announced as to whether China will in fact restrict access.”

Soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade were little changed at US$9.8325 a bushel after declining 0.3% on Wednesday. Soymeal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were little changed at 2,806 yuan (US$444) a tonne after climbing 1.5% on Wednesday, the biggest gain for the most-active contract since Dec 6.

While China has already “handicapped” US sorghum, soybeans would be “an order of magnitude larger,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Tobin Gorey said in an emailed report. Soybeans “are a major concern for a significant number of people who voted for the current US President.”