Economic issues really matter in coming general election
THE year 2018 carries two important milestones for Malaysia. First, 2018 is the MidTerm Review of the Eleventh Malaysia Plan (2016-2020), whereby the Economic Planning Unit of Prime Minister Department will take stock of our economic achievements and development programmes in 2016-17, including reassess key macroeconomic strategies, initiatives, and targets in our quest towards becoming a high-income and developed nation status in 2020.
Secondly, it also marks the year of charting our country’s future political landscape as the 14th general election (GE14) of Malaysia must be held by June 24, 2018. All signs point to the election to be held between end-April and early May. Amid political fatigue among Malaysians, GE14 remains much anticipated general election in recent decades, to the extent some political leaders of Umno, the dominant ruling party of Barisan Nasional dubbed it as “Mother of Elections”.
A total of 14.6 million registered voters as of June 2017 will decide who they want to support and elect, and also make a determination of who would be in the best interest of the country to be our leaders to bring Malaysia forward.
More importantly, to make Malaysia a country where we are all proud to be Malaysians. Regardless of the election results and of one’s political views, we must not lose sight of what we have worked hard to create over the past 60 years – political stability and democracy, mutual tolerance, inclusiveness and a productive country.
Indeed, our journey to become a high-income nation by 2020 will remain challenging. The increasing global complexity will continue to present significant trials to Malaysia’s policy makers as they navigate our country into the dimension of a new normal global environment driven by unpredictable pace of digitalisation and highly disruptive technologies.
The relentless parade of new technologies is unfolding on many fronts, and will alter the economic, business and social landscapes. Advances in disruptive technologies will disrupt the status quo and alter the way we live and work. It is therefore critical for our country and business leaders, technocrats as well as every Malaysians, must not only know what’s on the horizon but also start preparing for its impact.
The economy is usually an important issue in helping voters decide whom to support in the general elections. Thus, a key for voters is how well the economy is now and how well our political leaders articulate the current economic issues confronting the rakyat and businesses. It’s about how the election manifesto pledges to tackle short-term issues and promote new ideas with prescriptive notions and workable action plans for carrying out reforms and changes ahead.
In rural areas, while the people-centric development programmes and community service projects matter for rural households, rising cost of living, increasing prices and localised issues could cause voter dissatisfaction with the state administration and leadership.
A well-managed economy will be essential to win over voters who are feeling the squeeze. The Malaysian economy gained strong ground in 2017 and will continue to expand in 2018; the ringgit has rebounded; the stock market continues to rally, buoyed by the return of foreign money and the strengthening macro prospects.
Amid the rosy economic picture, Malaysians on balance are feeling somewhat disillusioned about the state of economic conditions although the actual GDP numbers and consumer spending showed strong annual growth of 5.9% and 7.0% respectively in 2017.
Some argue that it is an issue of perception as the robust economic performance has yet to translate into improving sentiment. Consumer sentiment remained below the optimism threshold level for 13 consecutive quarters since the third quarter of 2014. The restraining factors weighing on sentiment, especially for the vulnerable households are sustained cost of living pressure; higher prices of goods and services; concerns over employment opportunities and debt obligations.
Bread and butter grievances like the rising cost of living, unemployment among graduates and affordable housing remain top concerns of the rakyat. Based on Merdeka Centre’s National Public Opinion Survey on Economic Hardship Indicators from Nov 4-Nov 14 2017) showed that 72% voters ranked economic concerns as the top concern, an increase from 63% in September 2016 and was substantially higher than 44% in July 2013, two months after the 13th GE on May 5, 2013. It was cited that inflation, rising cost of living, corruption and the lack of opportunities were the top concerns among voters. Other concerns were crime and social problems, racial and political issues.
The survey also asked the respondents what they felt over the past six months in the following economic hardship indicators: 70% of the voters indicated that they have savings of at least RM500 for an emergency followed by 64% who felt stressed about the future; 40% reported delay or unable to pay electricity or phone bills on time; and 20% incurred new debt.
Another survey conducted by University of Malaya carried out between July and December 2017 also showed consistent results. Wages, jobs and unemployment are at the top of voters’ minds.
Jobs and incomes were more important to voters than corruption, religion or education. Crime and security came in second, followed by integrity and corruption. Increasing prices of goods and rising living costs ranked fourth.
Thus, both the political divides will have to convince rural and urban voters that they are not only better able to response and handle bread and butter grievances but also convince the voting public that the policy alternatives chosen are the best ones.
The progress of elections suggests a changed political landscape as voters’ democratic maturity prevail.
The narrative of the election manifesto not only must be progressive and forward looking, covering all aspects of social, economic, businesses and development programmes but also actionable rather than just lofty motherhood statements. Whatever populist measures or sweeteners must make economic sense.
While voters may expect carrots, which requires a balancing act between unpopular policies and populist approaches, Malaysians demand a national narrative which promises clean, decisive leadership, good governance and a well-crafted credible economic policies and inclusive socio-economic development programmes.