In the race to fill LNG supply gap, project goalposts have changed

LONDON: The race is on for liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers to build export terminals as demand soars, but the criteria for financing such mega-projects have shifted as traditional relationships with LNG consumers have begun to disintegrate.

Royal Dutch Shell’s final investment decision (FID) taken last month for a US$30bil LNG Canada project was a shot in the arm for the LNG industry, which is emerging from almost three years of low prices and investment.

As a vote of confidence in the LNG market, Shell’s decision is expected to get the ball rolling on a wave of approvals for dozens of similar projects around the world that have been planned for years but not yet finalised.

But the FID represented a different financing structure, unreliant on commitments from large buyers as previous mega-projects had been, such as the recently commissioned Ichthys facility in Australia or the US Sabine Pass plant.

Instead, Shell will absorb the cost into its budget and will effectively worry about the ultimate buyers later – as one of the largest corporate purchasers of LNG in the world, it can absorb the new volumes into its global portfolio.

Demand for LNG is there – it is expected almost to double to 550 million tonnes a year (mtpa) by 2030, leaving room for plenty more export terminals despite an influx of fresh supply from new, mostly US, terminals.

But projects have struggled to find offtakers as the world’s biggest buyers in Japan and South Korea seek nimbler terms while others such as India and Pakistan are less creditworthy.

“Projects that require buying commitments are really struggling to find buyers to sign up... I don’t see a lot that is happening,” said Vivek Chandra, chief executive of Texas LNG, which plans a medium-sized project of the same name.

“I don’t know what the buyers are waiting for because the golden opportunity to sign up for deals was yesterday,” he told a conference this month, referring to historically low LNG prices in recent years before they began rising last winter.

Aside from 50 mtpa of supply due from US projects under construction, 17 new US terminals like Texas LNG need FIDs.

Other plans dot the world from Qatar’s expansion to plants in

Russia and Mozambique as well as South-East Asia.

Of all these projects, only a handful in the United States will ultimately be built and for others, the ability for the operator to absorb LNG into its portfolio will be key.

“The projects that we might see now are the ones that don’t rely on offtake agreements,” said Frank Konertz, a LNG analyst at S&P Global.

Irrespective of price, long-term offtake commitments are risky today because the global LNG market is undergoing fundamental changes as it grows and increases liquidity. — Reuters