Aminvest: Petronas capex spending to stabilise

Cash rich oil giant can easily finance dividend payments

KUALA LUMPUR: Aminvestment Research expects Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s (Petronas) capital expenditure (capex) spending, which fell in the first half of 2019, to stabilise on a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis next year with more positive bias.

The research unit said Petronas’ first half capex fell 21% y-o-y to Rm15.7bil largely due to the tail-end development of the Us$27bil Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC) in Johor which has reached a completion stage of 99.7%, as downstream spending shrank by 26% to Rm4.7bil.

The slower spending at PIC also contributed to the group’s second quarter 2019 capex in Malaysia falling by 17% q-o-q to Rm4.3bil.

“We do not view this decline as alarming for the upstream sector as this could be partly due to multiple projects’ timing of cost recognition and does not signal upcoming cost cutbacks given that Petronas’ 2019 to 2021 activity outlook projected a gradual improvement in the utilisation of rigs, vessels, pipeline/offshore installations next year, ” it said.

In the second quarter ended June 30, Petronas’ net profit rose 6% q-o-q to Rm12.8bil due to the 1% depreciation of the ringgit versus the US dollar and halving of finance costs, which was partly offset by lower LNG sales volume and US dollar-based realised product prices despite average Brent prices rising 9% q-o-q.

The 4% depreciation of the ringgit y-o-y largely drove Petronas’ net profit up by 9% y-o-y to Rm24.9bil.

Aminvest Research also noted Petronas has added a new classification to its upstream business with the gas and new energy (GNE) segment, which covers the marketing and monetisation of gas.

On a y-o-y comparison, the group’s 1H2019 upstream revenue rose 2% to Rm20bil, while GNE rose by 13% to Rm39bil as the group’s daily oil and gas production rose 1.5% to 2.4mil boe.

Revenue variability appears skewed towards GNE as Petronas’ 2Q2019 upstream revenue climbed 20% q-o-q to Rm11bil from a 1% oil output increase while GNE decreased 25% q-o-q to Rm17bil from a daily gas production decline of 3% to 1.5mil boe, likely due to lower Iraqi output.

“With a net cash balance of Rm98bil, Petronas should easily finance the remaining FY18 dividend payments of Rm28bil, which comprise a final dividend of Rm20bil and Rm8bil, which is part of a special dividend of Rm30bil. The group has not declared any dividend yet for 2019.

“Malaysia’s second quarter 2019 contract awards rebounded 2.1 times q-o-q and 59% y-o-y to Rm4bil following a lull in the first quarter 2019 and driven by multiple awards to Sapura Energy, while Bumi Armada secured a 30% stake in ONGC’S KG-DWN 98/2 FPSO charter.

“While first half 2019 awards still contracted 6% y-o-y to Rm5.8bil, the contract flows to the services sector are now on the verge of regaining a more prominent forward momentum. Over the longer term, offshore projects in Brazil, Mexico, the Middle East and West Africa are poised to gain traction with Sapura Energy and MMHE being selected for Saudi Aramco’s long term agreement programme, which allows them to bid for the kingdom’s massive offshore projects that could reach Us$150bil over the next 10 years, ” it said.

The research house pointed out Westwood Global Energy Group is projecting global drilling and well services expenditure to grow 19% to US$1.9 trillion for 2019 to 2023 from 2014 to 2018.

Aminvest Research maintained 2019 to 2020 crude oil forecast at US$65 to US$70 a barrel amid high volatility.

Amid the recent disruption to Saudi Arabia’s production from drone attacks purportedly launched by Iran-backed Yemeni Houthis, Brent crude oil prices have rebounded by US$4 a barrel from last week to Us$65/barrel, which is the year-to-date 2019 average.

With US crude inventories declining by 14% to 417 million barrels since the one-year peak of 485 million in June this year, we retain our 2019 to 2020 price forecast at US$65 to Us$70/barrel which has been maintained since Dec 3 last year.

Since the beginning of 2019, the EIA Shortterm Energy Outlook has continuously revised its crude oil projections, moving its Brent oil projection between Us$60/barrel and Us$70/barrel and currently settling at US$63 per barrel for 2019 and US$62 per barrel for 2020.

“We maintain overweight on the sector as prospects have begun to brighten with rising asset utilisation globally which supported service providers’ improving results,” it said.