Aggressive outlook for global soy crop

CHICAGO: The United States government’s latest projections suggest a little more comfort in global soybean stocks over the next year versus corn or wheat, but that is based on some crop assumptions that could be difficult to achieve, especially all at once.

The US Department of Agriculture’s (Usda) first outlook for the upcoming 2022-23 season suggested next year’s soybean supply relative to demand will safely rise from this year, but remain on the tighter side compared with other recent years.

Several limiting factors may already exist on the production side, potentially adding pressure to a scenario without a huge safety net. Most-active Chicago soybean futures on Wednesday settled at US$16.62 (RM73.23) per bushel, a record high for the date.

Usda sees 2022-23 soybean production in Brazil, the United States, Argentina and Paraguay rising more than 13% on the fiveyear average and more than 8% above the prior high. Those countries export 94% of the world’s soybeans.

Soybean output soared above the prior average by an even larger degree in each season from 2013-14 through 2016-17, and that was rooted in both area and yield increases.

Planted area growth this year is predicted to be notable versus many past years, but the yield gains are more marginal.

There are only four years in the last 15 where soybean yields in the big three – Argentina, Brazil and the United States – all exceeded their preceding five-year averages. Brazil and the United States, the top two exporters, achieved that feat simultaneously in seven of the last 15 years.