Survey: Stronger outlook for oil next year
NEW YORK: US crude oil prices will average between US$80 (RM364.32) and US$100 (RM455.4) per barrel next year, investors attending a Barclays conference estimate, suggesting a stronger outlook than future prices suggest.
Oil futures for October traded at US$85 (RM387) a barrel on Monday, with the outlook for 2023 at about US$79 (RM359.77) a barrel.
Prices had traded over US$100 a barrel earlier this year on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions. Oil has cooled on concerns of an economic slowdown.
Separately, the Bank of America boosted its 2023 US oil price forecast by US$4 (RM18.22) to US$94 (RM428.1) a barrel, pointing to what it called a “modest but demonstrable production cut at the last Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting.”
The producing group in early September agreed to cut output by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.1%, of total global demand, amid worries of oversupply and fears of a weakening global economy.
In the Barclays survey, some 56% of participants at its chief executive officer energy and power conference here indicated they expect global oil inventories to be lower over the next 12 months.
Supply chain disruptions and inflation continue to roil fossil fuel production. Slightly over half of survey respondents said they expect US oil output to grow by 500,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd between the fourth quarter of this year and next.
Shale producers EOG Resources Inc and Pioneer Natural Resources Co predicted US oil production will lag behind expectations, with the latter calling for growth of roughly 500,000 bpd this year and less next year.
The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, expects oil production to average 12.6 million bpd next year, up about 800,000 bpd from forecasts for 11.8 million bpd this year.
Barclays’ survey participants anticipate oilfield inflation to remain a problem – 68% suggesting costs will jump by 10% to 20% in 2023.