Cathie Wood sticks with Us$1mil bitcoin forecast

Even after a horrific 2022 for bitcoin, Cathie Wood’s firm is sticking to one of its boldest predictions yet: that the price of the cryptocurrency will exceed Us$1mil (Rm4.2mil) in the next decade.

“Bitcoin’s long-term opportunity is strengthening,” strategists led by Yassine Elmandjra wrote in ARK Investment Management’s annual Big Ideas paper published Monday.

“Despite a turbulent year, bitcoin has not skipped a beat. Its network fundamentals have strengthened and its holder base has become more long-term focused.”

That the forecast is roughly a 4,200% increase from the coin’s current level of US$23,000 (RM97,173) doesn’t seem to have deterred Wood & Co.

The ARK chief investment officer is known for making bold predictions and has long called for the price of bitcoin to reach this stratospheric level.

While her conviction on speculative technology helped her flagship fund – ARK Innovation ETF (ticker ARKK) – return 150% in 2020, it also led the fund to post its worst performance ever in 2022. ARKK tumbled 67% that year, leading many to question her track record.

The firm expects bitcoin to hit Us$1.48mil Rm6.3mil) in 2030, its most bullish outlook, while US$258,500 (Rm1.09mil) is the bear case and US$682,800 (Rm2.9mil) the base.

The strategists pointed to how the coin has delivered positive annualised returns over short-term time horizons and on-chain data suggesting that bitcoin faithfuls remain focused on the fundamentals through longterm holder supply.

Bitcoin’s hash rate – the amount of computing power being used to mine and process transactions on the network – increasing for 12 straight years was also seen as a factor driving their upbeat projection.

ARK’S call looks a little more prescient now given the fact that both bitcoin and ARKK have rallied year-to-date as risk assets move higher on hopes the Fed will ease its monetary tightening.

ARKK’S nearly 29% rise in January was one the fund’s best months on record.

Bitcoin had its best start to the year since 2013 last month, rallying nearly 40%.