In southern Philippines, it’s complicated

There’s more than one reason for the violence, and there is a major reason why we should monitor the situation closely.

“YOU are going to Mindanao? You are not afraid of the Islamic State?” asked a Filipina waitress working in a sushi restaurant in Sunway Pyramid, Petaling Jaya, two days before I travelled to the restive southern Philippines.

Interesting, I thought. Previously, when I told Filipinos in Kuala Lumpur and Manila, that I was heading to places like Jolo, Zamboanga City or Cotabato City in the southern Philippines, they would say, “You are going to Mindanao? You are not afraid of Abu Sayyaf?”

The IS terror group has replaced the Abu Sayyaf as the bogeyman in the Philippines.

The May 23 attack on Marawi City in Mindanao, propelled IS to become Filipinos’ greatest fear.

The war in the only Islamic city in Catholic- dominated Philippines blew up when the military and police tried to capture Isnilon Hapilon, an Abu Sayyaf leader who pledged loyalty ( bai’ah) to IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

The military miscalculated the strength of Hapilon’s group, that was backed by the Maute group based in Marawi City.

I organised the sudden, quick four-night trip to Zamboanga City, Davao City and Manila, to meet contacts familiar with the terror threatening their country.

Rather than being an armchair observer, I wanted to be on the ground to check the implications of the on-going battle for Malaysia.

Inevitably, my hometown in Sabah is connected to the terror in the southern Philippines because of proximity.

Going to Marawi City was not possible, given my time limit. One of the closest airports was Cagayan de Oro, 103km away, or two and a half hours’ drive.

Plus, it is a war zone. You need courage and lots of dollars (to pay for fixers and transport) to enter it.

Mindanao is under martial law. President Rodrigo Duterte declared 60 days of martial law on the day security forces failed to apprehend Isnilon.

But there was not much difference between the Zamboanga City I visited last week and the one I visit- ed in January 2016.

It was not as if there was a heavy military presence.

This was the softer version of the martial law imposed by Ferdinand Marcos, who ruled the Philippines from 1965 to 1986.

(According to The Philippine Star, enforced disappearances, tortures, killings and other forms of human rights abuses marked Marcos’ regime after he declared martial law on Sept 21, 1972.)

The same for Davao City.

Life goes on. For example, on Saturday, I attended, together with my good friend Edith Ging Z. Caduaya, a book launch of Alab, the Awakening of Filipino Nationalism, a collection of essays by OFW (overseas Filipino workers) on their life working overseas and also their support for Duterte.

I took a photograph with a fullsized cardboard cut-out of Davao’s most beloved resident Duterte, signed several Alab books, took a wefie with Davao media personalities and Alab essayists and ate lechon baboy (roasted pig).

Life goes on. For example, out of curiosity, I visited a night club in front of the Royal Mandaya Hotel, where I was staying. And I had read on the internet that it was THE place to go.

I paid 50 pesos (RM4.20) to enter the night club. Unfortunately, the dancers did not have hot legs but had thunder thighs.

Life goes on, but there is a lingering fear. I met a 30-something contact in the lobby of the Royal Mandaya Hotel, which Edith recommended as it is where Duterte holds most of his press conferences.

The contact asked if it was okay if she could bring her friends along for dinner. I said okay. Four tough-looking men accompanied her.

“How come you have people guarding you?” I asked.

“You know there is a threat here,” she whispered as we waited for a pickup truck to pick us up.

“What threat?” I said, playing dumb.

“They might target Davao City,” she said, referring to IS.

The fear of attack was also whispered to me by my contacts in Zamboanga City.

“Jolo town might be the next Marawi City,” said another contact as we had dinner at Garden Orchid Hotel in Zamboanga City. “What have you heard?” I said. “There are text messages from the Patikul group that they are planning to target Jolo town after Hari Raya,” said the 30-something woman who lives in Jolo town, referring to Abu Sayyaf groups based in Patikul municipality, adjacent to Jolo town.

“They want to turn Jolo into Marawi City. They can’t make money from kidnapping in Sabah as the borders are closed. They are desperate. They hate Duterte.”

“How possible is this attack?” I asked, worried as when there’s trouble in Jolo island it might spill over to Sabah.

“The military is on full alert. There’s a 50% possibility that they can do it. Not impossible as they’ve got the arms and 500 gunmen and other Abu Sayyaf groups from Indanan and Talipao might join in.”

I checked her information with an academician based in Jolo.

“The situation in Jolo is different from Marawi,” he said.

“In Jolo, the residents who are armed will fight back. The local politicians will also fight back. Also, there are not many high buildings in Jolo town for snipers.”

Before my trip to the Philippines, I thought that the Marawi City siege was only related to IS.

It is actually a combination of several factors such as the Islamic State influence and narco politics – a defeated Marawi City politician who is allegedly a drug lord with connections with the Maute family.

Listening to the why of the war in Marawi City reminded me of the Tanduo intrusion in 2013.

There were several reasons for it – from micro to macro. Plus, depending on whom you talked to, the reasons differed.

I was reminded of that when I met Dayang Dayang Sitti Krishna Kiram, the half-sister of the self-proclaimed Sultan of Sulu Jamalul Kiram III and Raja Muda Agbimuddin Kiram, who led the intrusion.

“They came to look for jobs, Philip,” said Abraham Idjirani, Sitti Krishna’s husband and secretary-general of the so-called Sultanate of Sulu and North Borneo when we met at the Shangri-La Hotel in Makati City.

Some of the gunmen holed up in Marawi are abandoning the city, according to several of my contacts, to start a war in other parts of the southern Philippines. Hopefully, they won’t, as Esscom warned, end up in Sabah.