Looming threat of the right

Angela Merkel seems to be consolidating her hold on power despite a shift in the landscape.

SO Angela Merkel’s won another election in Germany. Despite losing 65 seats, her Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union party seems to be in a stronger position than before.

And the woman who is already Germany’s third longest-serving Chancellor, after conservative icons Helmut Kohl and Konrad Adenauer, is poised to extend a rule that is already into its 12th year.

The reasons for the increased strength despite the dropped seats are that her party is still significantly the largest party, its main rival the Social Democrats (SDP) has suffered massive losses and its most favoured ally, the liberal Free Democrats have bounced back from a four-year absence to gain 80 seats in the Bundestag.

Much is being made of the rise of a third party, the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) although one wonders if this is a flash in the pan or another momentous gain for the far right that mirrors Le Pen in France (and some would say Trump in the United States).

I have to say that the sight of a German right-wing party enjoying electoral growth is an unpleasant one, with more historical implications than there would be in most other countries simply because of Germany’s Nazi past.

I remember when the Republicans threatened briefly to become a national force in the early 1990s soon after German reunification and also when the National Democratic Party grew in numbers around 2004. There is no doubt there is a faction of the German electorate that still identifies with xenophobic policies and is opposed to Merkel’s liberal views on immigration and Germany’s growing Muslim population.

I recall Germany having certain policies in place that have helped suppress the resurgence of the farright, for example, laws against Holocaust denial and prosecuting the incitement of hatred. So I wasn’t pleased to see AfD leap from out of nowhere into third place.

My friend Mr Fischer, who once voted for the Greens, but whose allegiance is largely with the socially liberal FDP, is not too worried.

“The AfD is a joke. Nobody wants to join them. The party had Olaf Henkel as party leader three years ago but since he left no serious personality was in charge,” he told me, arguing that the unwillingness of all other parties to work with AfD will consign it to mosquito status.

Still, I wasn’t happy that the Germans even allowed such a party to get this far.

Fisher said that while it may not be pretty, it has to be accepted as part of the system.

“It’s part of democracy, since there also is a left wing party which still has some ties to the former East German communist dictatorship.”

Indeed the Left Party is Germany’s fifth largest with 69 seats.

Noticeably, support for the AfD was larger in the former East Germany where the standard of living is still lower and unemployment is high.

That this could spark a flashpoint can be seen by the fact the AfD celebrations in Berlin were protested by anti-Nazi activists.

Still the hope is that its growth stops there and Merkel is committed to keeping the AfD on the fringes of German politics.

“It looks like it’s going to be a ‘Jamaican’ coalition of CDU, FDP and Greens,” said Fischer, who said that he expected a few environmentally-friendly laws and even the possible legalisation of marijuana.

The funny part about Merkel’s long rule is that she has always had to rely on a coalition, and that Germany itself despite many years of CDU leadership functions on a generous welfare state system.

“The CDU made many compromises with the SDP, throughout history,” said Fischer.

On the other hand, if I were an FDP or Greens supporter I would be wary of being a junior partner in a Merkel-led coalition.

The FDP was punished in 2013 and the SDP just suffered its worst election result in 70 years.

I do wonder if the latter regrets its move after the last elections when the SDP, Greens and Left had even seats to topple Merkel, but the SDP tamely decided to play a supporting role in government instead.

The lack of personal drawing power of Martin Schulz, SDP candidate for the top post, has also been cited as a factor.

“He has no charisma not like former SDP chancellors Willy Brand or Gerhard Schroder,” I was told.

So even though the far right could be rising, Merkel is still sitting cosily in power. With no term limits on the top post, it’s beginning to look like only an internal party coup can remove her. She did that to Kohl after years of being his protege.

I think the aristocratic defence minister Ursula Von Der Leyen is the best bet to take over should Merkel ever decide to make her exit. Hopefully by then, the far right threat will have been quelled. News editor Martin Vengadesan thinks that Germany should be realistic about its underbelly and outlaw all far right parties.