China on the radar as Pyongyang rachets up war talk
BEIJING: Securing North Korea’s missile launchers and nuclear, chemical and biological weapons sites would likely be a chief priority for China in the event of a major crisis involving its communist neighbour, analysts say, although Beijing so far is keeping mum on any plans.
Despite China’s official silence, its People’s Liberation Army likely has a “vast array” of contingency plans involving military options, said Dean Cheng, an Asia security expert at the Heritage Foundation think tank in Washington. The PLA and paramilitary People’s Armed Police could also be deployed to deal with refugees and possible civil unrest, he said.
What’s less clear is whether and under what conditions China would commit troops as an occupying force should North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s regime fall apart, Cheng said.
“We can hypothesize that they might, but, as the observation goes, those who know don’t say and those who say probably don’t know,” he said.
With tensions between the US and North Korea running high and relations between Beijing and Pyongyang at a historic low, questions are being raised about how China might respond in the event of a regime collapse.
The scene along the China-North Korea border in the wild mountains of northeast Asia provides some clues. Despite a dearth of traffic and trade, construction crews are at work on a six-lane highway to the border outside the small Chinese city of Ji’an along the Tumen River, a corridor that could facilitate the rapid movement of tanks and troops.
Guard posts, barbed wire-topped fences and checkpoints manned by armed paramilitary troops mark the frontier along the border – signs of concern about potentially violent border crossers or even more serious security threats.
China’s unwillingness to discuss its plans is likely a strategic choice by the notoriously secretive PLA, but potentially threatens unintended consequences were a major crisis to emerge, experts say.
“Each party has its own plans for action in the event of an emergency, but if they act individually without communicating with others, it raises the possibility of misjudgement and unnecessary military conflicts,” said Jia Qingguo, dean of the school of International Studies at elite Peking University.
“There has long been a danger in this respect. Someone must take control of North Korea’s nuclear weapons,” Jia said.
Coordination is also needed on the handling of civilians, particularly with those international agencies experienced in dealing with such crises, Jia said. Among the refugees may be tens of thousands released from North Korean labour camps who may need medical treatment for communicable diseases and malnutrition.
“Refugees are a huge issue that could involve a tremendously large number of people and potentially become a humanitarian crisis,” Jia said.
Asked about Chinese preparations for a North Korean crisis, defence ministry spokesman Col Wu Qian offered assurance but no details at a monthly news briefing on Thursday.
“Dialogue and consultation is the only effective way to solve the problem concerning the Korean Peninsula, and the military option cannot be an option,” Wu said. “The Chinese military has made all necessary preparations to safeguard national sovereignty and security and regional peace and stability.”
While Chinese officials have routinely said Beijing would not allow “chaos and war” to break out on its doorstep, official media have hinted that it might not respond if the North made an unprovoked strike on the US or its allies and suffered a retaliation.
That ambiguity serves to keep the US and South Korea guessing, possibly tempering their own responses, said Cheng, the Asia security expert.
With 85% of North Korea’s nuclear facilities located within 100km of the border with China, special forces from the People’s Liberation Army could easily secure those sites without coming into conflict with occupying forces from South Korea and the US, said Georgetown University security studies professor Oriana Skylar Mastro. — AP