Was Dr Mahmud really the ‘new emir’?

The death of the Malaysian terrorist has been confirmed, but earlier reports that he could be the next Islamic State leader in South-East Asia were likely exaggerated.

“DR Mahmud dead just now. Don’t ask for details,” an intel source told my colleague Muguntan Vanar at 11am on Thursday.

Immediately, Muguntan, who is The Star’s Sabah bureau chief, called me as we had been tracking whether Malaysia’s most wanted militant Dr Mahmud Ahmad was dead or alive for the last few days.

We had been getting unconfirmed and raw intelligence reports that the lecturer-turned-militant had been killed.

With the latest news that the former Universiti Malaya lecturer was dead, we needed to double-check whether it was true.

Other intel sources in Malaysia and Philippines were reluctant to confirm his death. Security forces could not retrieve his body as there were continuous firefights in Marawi City, southern Philippines, where he was supposed to have been killed.

We decided to run the story anyway, as the source who called to inform us of the news has never been wrong.

At 12.09pm, The Star Online ran a story that an intelligence source had confirmed that the 39-year-old lecturer with a doctorate in religious studies was dead.

That night at a Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry gathering in Manila, President Rodrigo Duterte announced that Dr Mahmud had been “taken” (killed).

Yesterday, I woke up in Manila to the Philippine Daily Inquirer’s front page story, AFP: New ‘Emir’ Killed in Latest Fighting.

(AFP refers to the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the new emir refers to the top Malaysian militant who was tipped to become the point man of the Islamic State (IS) group in South-East Asia.)

Dr Mahmud, who used the nom de guerre Abu Handzalah, played an important role in the Marawi City attack, where more than 1,000 people and 164 military and police personnel were killed. He arranged funding and recruited fighters.

But was he really going to be the next IS emir in South-East Asia?

“Dr Mahmud will not have the support of Filipino IS militants to be the emir. Filipinos – especially in southern Philippines – will only give their loyalty to a leader who is of their own clan,” said a Filipino intelligence officer before Dr Mahmud was killed.

“Do you think Dr Mahmud will be the new emir?” I WhatsApp-ed Sidney Jones, the director of the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, while the terrorist was still alive.

“Too early to say. He doesn’t control territory or fighters,” she said.

On Thursday, she sent me a link to her post “After Hapilon’s death and the ‘ liberation’ of Marawi” on The Interpreter’s website published by the Lowy Institute (a think tank based in Sydney).

“Much media speculation has focused on who could succeed Hapilon (Isnilon Hapilon, the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) leader and IS emir in South-East Asia who was killed in Marawi), from a Maute relative to Dr Mahmud Ahmad, a Malaysian who for the last three years has been part of the Isis inner circle,” Jones wrote.

“The problem is that Dr Mahmud does not have the family networks to be able to command fighters or territory, and that could be a drawback. On the other hand, a leader who stands outside traditional ethnic divisions might have a better chance of keeping the weakened coalition intact.

“Among Filipinos, a possible contender could be Esmael Abdulmalik (@ Abu Torayfe), the head of a proIsis splinter of Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters that has been fighting the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in central Mindanao.

“As far as we know, however, he lacks international ties, language skills and charisma that made the Mautes so potent.”

Jones’ piece also warned of a possibility that could have repercussions on the east coast of Sabah. She said that from 2014 onwards, the Hapilon-led Abu Sayyaf faction had largely left kidnappings to other factions, almost certainly because it had access to other sources of income.

“With Hapilon dead, his once close associate Furuji Indama could become the new ASG leader on Basilan. Furuji could easily decide to leave IS and return to kidnapping, or return to kidnapping but focus on foreigners in revenge for Hapilon’s death,” she wrote.

So far, two Malaysians – Dr Mahmud and Muhammad Joraimee Awang Raimee @ Abu Nur (former Selayang Municipal Council officer) – have been killed in the battleground of Marawi City.

Earlier, in December 2015, former Universiti Malaya bookshop keeper Mohd Najib Husen @ Abu Anaz was killed by Philippines security forces on Basilan island, southern Philippines.

In April 2014, the trio went on a six-day mission to southern Philippines to set up an IS-linked network. They did not fly home when they found out that they were on Bukit Aman’s wanted list.

There are three more Malaysian militants on the run in southern Philippines. The hunt is on for Mohd Amin Baco (a Sabahan of Indonesian origin involved in kidnappings on the east coast of Sabah), Jeknal Adil and Kadaffi Safawi @ Kaddafi Pendek.

They are wanted dead or alive.