Taking the pulse of Pagoh

With GE14 looming, many voters in the Johor parliamentary seat have yet to decide.

IF YOU sit in your urban political bubble and read surveys from Invoke, the NGO, you’ll think it is an easy win for Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin in his parliamentary constituency of Pagoh.

But sometimes perception is different from the reality on the ground.

There’s a waitandsee mood among the voters of Pagoh in northern Johor.

They do not know whether Muhyiddin will defend his seat or who will be the Umno candidate. With this uncertainty, many have not decided who they will vote for.

Pagoh has long been an Umno bastion. But there’s a question mark on whether that remains the case, now that Muhyiddin has been sacked from Umno.

The former Umno deputy president held Pagoh from 1978 to 1986 and from 1995 to now. In 1986, he contested in Bukit Serampang (a state seat in the Pagoh constituency), won and became Johor mentri besar.

There’s speculation that Muhyiddin will move to the nearby Muar parliamentary seat. It is perceived to be safer for him as it has more urban Malays and Chinese than Pagoh.

But the latest talk is that the Pribumi president will stay put.

If he goes to Muar, he’s facing incumbent Datuk Razali Ibrahim, who is working hard to defend the Umno seat from a possible challenge from Muhyiddin.

Nobody has emerged from Umno as the clear candidate for Pagoh.

But tongues are wagging that it is a choice between Pagoh Umno chief Ismail Mohamed, the firstterm Bukit Serampang assemblyman and state exco member in charge of Agriculture and AgroBased Industries, and Pagoh Umno Wanita chief Senator Datuk Noriah Maha.

“How’s the political mood here?” I asked a 50something Malay who at a glance I had pigeonholed as an Opposition voter.

It was lunchtime and we were at Kedai Makan Ipin in Pagoh town. He owns cattle farms in Pagoh and in other towns in the peninsula.

He was a former Umno member who ditched the party during the Reformasi era.

“It is difficult to say,” he said. “People are keeping quiet. They are just waiting for nomination day for GE14 as they don’t know who the candidates are.”

“Which party will win Pagoh?” I asked.

“Based on what I read in Facebook, Pribumi has already won. But I have enough experience with elections.

“You think the Opposition is going to win but during campaigning, the voters may change their minds.

“They’ll get government aid and they’ll vote for Umno. Voters are also thinking whether Pribumi will still be around after GE14,” he said.

A few months ago, I was in a small town near the Pagoh Education Hub, the brainchild of Muhyiddin when he was education minister.

I had traditionally made coffee in a Chinese coffee shop and chatted with the owners.

The family was antiBarisan Nasional, in particular Umno. One of the wife’s complaints was that her son had good grades but he did not get a government scholarship.

He got a scholarship from the Singapore government and is now working in a bank in the island republic.

“I guess you voted for PAS in GE13,” I said.

“Yes,” said the woman, who I had pigeonholed as an AnythingButUmno voter.

“You did not vote for Muhyiddin in GE13,” I said.

“Yes,” she said.

“Who are you going to vote for in GE14? You don’t like Umno, you did not vote for Muhyiddin and you voted for PAS, which is not with Pakatan Harapan,” I said.

She kept quiet. She gave a resigned expression.

From her silence, I pigeonholed her as a voter who will stay in her shophouse rather than go to the polling station on election day.

A few weeks later I had dinner with several Chinese who own smallholding plantations near Bukit Pasir, which is a bigger town than Pagoh.

Bukit Pasir has the most Chinese voters in the Pagoh constituency.

“Now that Muhyiddin is in the Opposition, are you going to vote for Pribumi?” I asked those at the table, who I had pigeonholed as DAP supporters.

“Tidak, dia hanya tolong kawasan dia sahaja (No, he only helps people in his area),” a 60something man said.

(We spoke in Malay as I don’t speak Chinese and they did not speak English.)

“If that is the case, then you will be voting for Muhyiddin as he helped his kawasan (area), which is also your area (the Pagoh constituency),” I said.

“No, he only helped his own kampung,” he said.

Finally, it hit me. Kawasan and kampung (village) are euphemisms that reflect their perception that Muhyiddin only helped his own race when he was the Johor mentri besar and later deputy prime minister.

There is a question mark on whether the Chinese (31% of the total voters) will vote for Pribumi in Pagoh.

I asked a political lecturer and her answer was: “DAP has done a reasonably good job on selling Pribumi to the Chinese.”

For the Malay voters in Pagoh who supported Umno in previous elections, the question is who do they love more – Umno or Muhyiddin?

If they love Umno more, the Pagoh incumbent’s bubble will burst.