Climate change affects us

HERE in South-East Asia, we neither have the time nor the luxury to debate on whether climate change is real or not. It is real.

The federal government this week announced it would be allocating around RM1.7mil for farmers in Penang who were affected by the floods in November 2017 (pic). About 2,000 farmers will be receiving a compensation of RM876 per hectare of padi field. This is in addition to the RM33.4mil that the Penang government paid to people in the state who suffered damage during the flood. By a long mile, this is the single largest payout to flood victims in the history of Malaysia.

It’s hard not to recognise that these devastating storms are hitting our shores more and more frequently.

The world’s climate is changing for the worse, and humans are responsible for that. Let’s dive into a touch of science to make sense of this. Scientists have long known that greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane absorb infrared radiation. With more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution, less of the sun’s heat is escaping back into space. Inevitably, the earth gets warmer and warmer.

Since the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen 40% while methane has surged 150%.

With rising temperatures, more of the earth’s ice is melting. Antarctica, which holds 90% of earth’s fresh water, is melting at a rate faster than previously recorded. In July 2017, a huge chunk of Antarctica known as A68 broke off from the rest of the continent. A68 is roughly 21 times the size of Kuala Lumpur.

All of this means there will be a steep rise in sea levels. And devastatingly, it’s the Southern Pacific, the body of water that sits right next to us, that has recorded one of the highest levels of sea rise in the world.

But what does this translate to? Essentially, with rising temperatures and rising sea waters, storms and floods will be stronger and more frequent. For every one degree Celsius in temperature rise caused by climate change, the atmosphere will absorb 7% more precipitation from the ground.

A recent study published by Nature Geoscience revealed that typhoons in our region have been getting 15% stronger in the past two decades. Storms like the one that rampaged through Penang will happen more often and the RM33mil in damage will look miniature compared to what we may potentially have to spend after floods in future.

According to Dr Hezri Adnan, co-creator of The Buwana Institute, a non-profit think-anddo-tank organisation based in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, “low-lying areas in Perak such as Manjung and Bagan Datuk may suffer from inundation (flooding).”

Specifically in Bagan Datuk, “many hectares of palm oil are already dying due to salt water intrusion. With sea levels rising, we can expect greater economic loss. In Sungai Perak, we can expect higher rainfall and by extension more frequent flooding.”

Other coastal cities such as Melaka, Kota Kinabalu, Johor Baru, Kuching and low-lying states such as Penang and Kedah are at enormous risk.

Dr Hezri warns that if state governments do not cease the clearing of forests, this man-made hazard will only get worse. “At the rate we are going, we won’t be able to deal with floods when rain volume and intensity escalate.”

Climate change is not just about storms either. Dr Renard Siew, the Climate Reality Project leader in Malaysia, says that climate change will accelerate everything from the threats of diseases to the scarcity of essential daily necessities.

“Climate change causes an invariability of rainfall which also affects crop yield. We are already seeing about a 10%-15% drop in yield annually. So food security could potentially become a threat coupled with the fact that more youths are moving away from the agriculture industry and into cities.”

Food security won’t just threaten the availability of produce we see in our local market. The unpredictable weather could put thousands of Malaysian farmers into unemployment, creating frustration that would be ripe for exploitation by extremist groups.

Dr Renard also emphasises that Malaysia’s healthcare system could face greater challenges as dengue outbreaks are closely linked with heavier rainfall. “The rural population is especially vulnerable to vector-borne and waterborne diseases following a flood.”

Scientists have confirmed that we are now in the sixth extinction event of life on earth. In the next seven decades, we could lose half of the species that inhabit this planet. Ninety-nine per cent of the species that lived on this planet have gone extinct. There’s no guarantee that humans will make the cut.

But there’s a little hope. For a start, at least we aren’t living in a country where our leaders are openly denying climate change. The fact that our country is already experiencing the effects of climate change makes this ignorance impossible.

So while leaders in Russia and the United States continue to pocket millions from the fossil fuel industry to deny climate change, the rest of the world will have to take the lead. Germany and China have already begun developing an economic infrastructure compatible for renewable energy. Germany now produces 32% of its national energy from solar and wind. By 2040, it is predicted to reach 100%.

With the promises of TN50 and the commitment of being carbon neutral, Malaysia could potentially be a leader in a region that will be heavily scrutinised for its efforts against tremendous weather threats. We will be heading into this tumultuous future first.

“I do strongly believe there’s hope,” reiterates Dr Renard. “Already, we’re seeing countries such as the UK and France phasing out traditional combustion vehicles and moving towards electric vehicles (solar, wind, hydro).”

Investment in renewable energy has skyrocketed and we are starting to move towards largescale solar (LSS) systems. Installing a one megawatt LSS system can essentially give a rural town 100% electrification. Such instalments are already taking place under the Asian Development Bank in the Pacific Islands.

In 1978, one solar watt used to cost US$78. Today, it will cost a mere 50 cents. Solar and wind energy is cheap. The sun will not send us a bill. The process of installing these solar and wind systems across Malaysia could also create enough employment for three generations.

If we want any chance of stopping the effects of climate change, we need to be off carbon in four decades.

There’s a lot that can potentially go wrong in the next few years, however. A government that does not prioritise a shift to renewable energy could be elected. Worse, new leaders could implement populist policies such as a subsidy in petrol and pull us back to a dependency on fossil fuel energy.

Suddenly, “giving a new government a chance” doesn’t sound all that wise.