Stormy days loom as Azmin hangs on
With uncertain times ahead, the redelineation exercise weighs heavily on Pakatan’s mind
KLANG: Every day is a guessing game over the weather in Selangor, with the sun burning down in mid-morning and afternoon and the rain pouring late in the evening. The political climate seems to be pretty much the same.
Mixed signals and uncertainty seem to be the order of the day and dark, nasty clouds may be looming ahead.
The biggest concern within the Pakatan Harapan parties is the redelineation exercise.
There is speculation that due to the exercise, there may be a hung Selangor state assembly with PAS and Barisan Nasional together having the same number of seats as Pakatan’s PKR, DAP, Amanah and Pribumi.
The Selangor assembly has 56 seats of which DAP hold 14, PKR 13, PAS 13 and Barisan 12. The PAS breakaways of Amanah have two.
There are also two independents – Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, formerly from PKR, and Loh Chee Heng who was expelled from the DAP.
Some are even saying Pakatan may lose Selangor, after helming it for two terms because Barisan has gotten its act together to wrest back the country’s richest state.
Pakatan stalwarts, however, say they will still control the state albeit with fewer seats.
Selangor PKR information chief Mat Shuhaimi Shafiei said his party has conducted an in-depth and comprehensive research on the matter.
He said the analysis was done by Merdeka Center, Institut Darul Ehsan and an independent research organisation.
“Two scenarios were created based on the Election Commission’s (EC) first redelineation display and its second redelineation display,’’ said Mat Shuhaimi.
He added that if the redelineation display was based on the EC’s first display, Pakatan would lose some seats but would still be able to form the government.
“If the exercise is based on the EC’s second display, Pakatan will stand to win more seats in Selangor,’’ said Mat Shuhaimi.
“If the electoral boundaries are stipulated according to the first dis- play, Pakatan may lose Kuala Kubu Baru (Hulu Selangor) and Sungai Pelek (Sepang) both of which are held by the DAP.”
Both state seats belonged to the MCA until the 2013 general election.
Given its political acumen, this could be why the DAP is asking for additional seats so it can ensure itself at least 15 places in the assembly.
The DAP had initially asked for an additional eight seats, in the yet-tobe-settled Selangor Pakatan seat allocation exercise, but has now brought down its request to only two additional seats.
Klang MP Charles Santiago of DAP reckons state seats under the Kapar parliamentary constituency may also be in trouble as the demographics will be changed from Chinese majority to Malay majority under the redelineation.
Kapar has the Meru (PAS), Sementa (PKR) and Sungai Pinang (DAP) state seats under it.
“These glitches can only be overcome if there is a Malay tsunami in favour of Pakatan,’’ said Santiago.
He said this was possible as the Malay community was the biggest beneficiary of the state government’s social policies such as the Kasih Ibu Smart Selangor and Peduli Sihat programmes.
Another speculation is that five PAS assemblymen are planning to move to PKR instead of jumping ship to Amanah.
State PKR chief Datuk Seri Azmin Ali, who is also Selangor Mentri Besar, is said to be treading on thin ice over that matter.
He said if the five assemblymen moved to PKR, national PAS leaders will become angrier with Azmin and a lot of PAS-based Malay votes will go away from PKR.
A lot of the PKR seats depend on Malay votes and PAS can go all out to influence the voters to go against PKR and its five former assemblymen.
The state DAP is refusing to acknowledge this reality and has launched several scathing attacks on PAS, especially over its three assemblymen still in the Selangor executive council line-up.
Political observers say Pakatan chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s presence also cannot be downplayed and could be a factor benefiting Pakatan.
They cite an example during the Sungai Besar by-election where Dr Mahathir was invited to deliver a speech at a forum in Sekinchan on various issues including 1MDB.
The nonagenarian was scheduled to deliver his speech and then leave immediately to Sungai Besar.
The venue hall was filled to the hilt and nearly all in the predominantly Chinese crowd were there to catch a glimpse of the former pre- mier and shake his hands.
After Dr Mahathir finished his speech and was walking out of the hall, he was mobbed by the hundreds who came there. Then, the other speakers were left addressing an empty hall.
Sekinchan, currently held by the DAP, has been identified by the party as a difficult seat, together with Kuala Kubu Baru and Sungai Pelek.
Azmin is also said to have a similar pull factor and will need to be everywhere in Selangor during the campaign.
Assoc Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia’s School of Social Sciences, said Azmin, as a smart politician, recognises the need to maintain a cordial relationship with PAS.
“PAS may end up being the kingmaker and as much he wants DAP’s support, he does not want to antagonise PAS,’’ said Dr Sivamurugan.
On the dour relationship between Azmin and a top Selangor DAP leader, Dr Sivamurugan said it was best both put their differences aside.
Barisan, meanwhile, is confident of wresting Selangor from Pakatan after two terms.
Kapar Umno division chief Datuk Faizal Abdullah, who is also political secretary to Selangor Barisan liaison chairman Tan Sri Noh Omar, said the coalition has been working extra hard amongst the grassroots.
“Pakatan’s approach has always been advocacy whilst ours is service to the grassroots. This will ensure our win,’’ said Faisal.
Dr Sivamurugan reckons it will be a tough fight in Selangor as Barisan has had 10 years to prepare for the fight.
“Barisan has shown a positive change as well as clarity in addressing and handling issues,” he said.
Besides this, Barisan, especially Umno has also been bridging the communication gap at all levels including with the media.
If they were difficult to get hold of 10 years ago, their current elected representatives are not only a phone call away but make it a point to be in constant touch with journalists.
For Selangor Barisan, especially Umno, retaking Selangor is literally a do-or-die mission because the party leadership is giving them no option.
Last year, Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had jokingly said he would tie Noh, his deputy Datuk Mat Nadzari Ahmad Dahlan and state Umno secretary Datuk Johan Abdul Aziz together and dump them into a snake-infested river if they failed to retake Selangor.
Ahmad Zahid may have said it in jest but everyone knows Umno is dead serious about the fight ahead.