A fight for B40 votes in Perak
Observer: Crucial to capture hearts of people from smaller towns and rural areas
PERAK Barisan Nasional appears likely to retain the state in the general election and it all hinges on support from smaller towns and rural areas, say political analysts.
They point out that victory will come down to several factors, the main battle being fought for the support of voters away from urban centres.
One observer, requesting anonymity, believes that both Barisan and Pakatan Harapan would be fighting for the support of the Malay B40 (lowest income group of below RM3,900) group in the rural areas.
“There are a number of Malays facing high cost of living in urban areas. They will return to their villages to tell the people there of their struggles.
“This is where the battle for votes will take place. Candidates and their parties will need to convince those voters to support them,” he says.
“Pakatan has already held talks and ceramah near Felda settlements and other rural areas.
“But the people need to understand that in a high-income country, the cost of living will not be low,” he adds.
The observer also says the state government has various initiatives to help soften the burden of the cost of living in these rural and small town areas, which could be a major factor for Barisan.
“One of these initiatives included the 1Amanjaya Mobile Shops, which sell sundry goods that are about 5% cheaper than regular shops. And apart from BR1M, the state also gives out welfare aid to the needy,” he says.
“The people in smaller towns and rural areas are considered to be well looked after. However, this doesn’t mean that victory is ensured as Barisan really needs to work hard and fight it out with Pakatan,” he adds.
Barisan holds 13 parliamentary seats while Pakatan has nine and PSM and PAS, one each.
At state assembly level, Barisan holds 31 out of 59 seats, with Pakatan having 24 ( DAP 18, PKR five, Amanah one) and PAS, four. Most of these 31 seats are in smaller towns and suburban areas.
Some of those seats were won by a slim majority including Selama (619), Rungkup (613), Pasir Panjang (304), Manong (231), Manjoi (132) and Lubok Merbau (53). All these are also Malay majority areas.
The observer says Barisan will also hope to win back some seats it lost in the previous election to strengthen its hold on Perak.
“Umno leaders are always back in their districts to meet the people and attend programmes,” he says, noting that three-cornered fights are likely to benefit Barisan.
“MCA’s hope lies with the older generation, which could possibly swing back about 10% to 15% in support,” he adds.
The observer also believes that the state flourishing under Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Dr Zambry Abd Kadir will be another factor in gaining the people’s support.
“Dr Zambry has done a good job in the state. I think he will continue to be Mentri Besar, despite being tipped to contest the Lumut parliamentary seat.
“He has never caused any issues or made any insensitive or racially-laced statements and is only focused on developing the state,” he says.
In his view, Perak is not a highrisk state that could swing either way.
“The real battle is down south. It is obvious because many political big shots are going to Johor,” he adds.
Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman political science lecturer Teh Boon Teck believes the mentality of voters in urban and rural/suburban areas differs.
“For urban centres, voters disregard the candidate. Their concern is which party to vote for.
“In suburbs and small towns, voters care who the candidate is because they tend to rely on their Yang Berhormat for help in various things like applying for BR1M or welfare aid,” he explains.
“They also see if the candidate actively attends community events and activities.”
Teh says the relationship between a leader and the people is also important and should not be overlooked in small towns and suburbs.
“I stay in Kampar and have interacted with the locals. Many are still not familiar with their MP Dr Ko Chung Sen. They are closer to Deputy Finance Minister and Kampar MCA chairman Datuk Lee Chee Leong.
“Some have even told me that they regretted their choice.
“They said they feel ‘kind of guilty’ when they meet Lee and have expressed their support for him in the coming election,” he adds.
Teh feels that voters in small towns and suburbs pay more attention to local issues than national ones.
“I think the voter turnout rate will also be a factor. Pakatan may win more seats if the turnout is high.
“Another factor that could impact the election is the economy. If it continues to worsen, votes may go to Pakatan,” he adds.
In Teh’s opinion, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Pribumi) chair- man Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad can attract more Malay supporters for Pakatan but there is a limit to his influence in some villages and rural areas.
“Umno’s election machinery is very strong in such areas.
“Unless there’s a conflict between the local leader in the area with Umno, I can’t see any big impact (Dr Mahathir will have) there,” he says.
As for Pribumi, Teh says its state leaders consisted mostly of people who lost in the Umno party elections.
“I don’t think they will have much influence. People in Perak support them because of Dr M.
“They became Pribumi members because they lost their power in Umno and no longer hold any important position.”
Teh urges all citizens to exercise their rights and come out to vote.
“It’s their responsibility, regardless of which side they vote for. Do not waste the vote or let other people decide for you,” he says.
On the impact of the redelineation exercise, Teh believes it will benefit Barisan, particularly Umno, but not MCA or Gerakan.
“Umno could win more seats. DAP too will benefit in certain areas,” he says.
Concurring with Teh, another political observer, who declined to be named, says the biggest change would be the increase in voters for the Beruas parliamentary seat, as the Astaka (formerly Sitiawan) state seat has been moved under it from the Lumut parliamentary constituency.
The state seats under Lumut now are Pangkor and Pasir Panjang, both held by Barisan.
A real battle royale: ‘People in Teluk Intan may prefer a local boy like Mah.’
“I think a huge chunk of Chinese voters, about 18%, will be moved to Beruas and its DAP incumbent MP Datuk Ngeh Koo Ham is expected to win by a bigger majority.
“The composition of Malay voters in Lumut could swell to 70% from about 50%.
“Dr Zambry, hotly tipped to contest there, could provide a win for Barisan against Amanah,” he adds.
The observer also believes that the redelineation exercise could see Barisan strengthen its grip on the Manjoi and Pasir Panjang state seats with a bigger majority and wrest back Changkat Jering (Amanah) and Sungai Rapat (PAS).
Former Perak mentri besar Datuk Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin won Changkat Jering by a 1,170 majority while Radzi Zainon won Sungai Rapat by a 2,638 majority.
“There has been talk that a lot of Opposition supporters from these constituencies have been moved due to the redelineation exercise,” the observer says.
“It is not, however, a foregone conclusion and these areas could still be tightly contested,” he adds.
On the other keen contests, he believes the battle in Teluk Intan is one to look out for.
“A battle between state DAP chairman Nga Kor Ming and current MP Datuk Seri Mah Siew Keong of Gerakan sounds like a real battle royale on paper.
“It must be said that the people in Teluk Intan may prefer a local boy like Mah but if someone like Nga shows up, it could really go down to the wire,” he says, adding that Nga’s fiery speeches could stoke local sentiment in his favour.