Sabah may see horse-trading and reverse frog jumping
The 18day runup to the April 28 nomination day is likely to see heavy political horsetrading, thus putting pressure on the fragile coalitions in Sabah.
Party hopping could take place during this period, which may also see publicly announced coalitions collapsing or “reshaping” ahead of the nominations, according to political analyst Mohd Rahezzal Shah.
“Aspiring candidates and even incumbents uncertain of their position are likely to push for their candidacy within their own parties or threaten to move out,” said Mohd Rahezzal, a UiTM lecturer and fellow at the Society Empowerment and Economic Development of Sabah.
He said the runup to nomination day was usually about 10 days previously.
“The longer time to nomination day will see politicians who have just a one per cent chance to be a candidate lobbying even harder.
“It is going to be a busy and intense 18 days because we are likely to see a greater push for candidacy, both within the Opposition and Barisan Nasional,” he said.
Amidst the excitement, Mohd Rahezzal pointed out that it could also be tiring for the players to hold on to their “formula” as well as members.
“The dynamics will change,” he added.
In Sabah, it is not uncommon for aspiring candidates and even senior leaders to leave their parties to join others in a bid for candidacy during the runup to nominations, which will eventually shape the battle lines for the elections.
In certain cases, some of them return to their original party just hours after announcing their new party membership.
Sabahans humourously refer to such people as katak gostan (reverse frog jumping).
Sabah Barisan Nasional, with its eight parties led by Sabah Chief Minister Tan Sri Musa Aman, is expected to face off with at least three main “unofficial” Opposition groupings.
Other smaller or little known parties may also enter the fray.
The main Opposition, Parti Warisan Sabah led by Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, is still tying up loose ends on seat arrangements with PKR and DAP.
Meanwhile, the fourparty Gabungan Sabah has said that their seat sharing has been settled.
A third force of native parties Parti Cinta Sabah and Parti Kerjasama Anak Negeri has also been formed.