Fresh battle line challenge
The fight for a new-look Bukit Katil constituency, now known as Hang Tuah Jaya, promises to be an exciting one.
WHEN Bukit Katil MP Shamsul Iskandar Mohd Akin looks at his Melaka parliamentary constituency on the map, he no longer recognises it.
“Previously, on the map, you can see a straight line that divided Bukit Katil, which is in the interior, and Kota Melaka parliamentary seat, which sits along the Straits of Malacca,” said Shamsul, who is a PKR vice-president.
“But now Kota Melaka is shaped like an L as five polling districts in my constituency have been added into it.”
After the redelineation exercise, Bukit Katil is now known as Hang Tuah Jaya.
It has also gotten slimmer. About 25,000 voters – mostly urban Chinese (60%) and Malays (40%) – have been transferred to Kota Melaka.
(The redelineation exercise has also turned Kota Melaka into a “super Chinese seat” which Singapore’s The Straits Times analysed that DAP will retain with a bigger margin – 19,781 votes in GE13 to 27,925 votes in GE14.)
For those who are not familiar with Hang Tuah Jaya, it is a parliamentary seat that you enter once you exit the Ayer Keroh toll from the North-South Expressway on your way to the historical city of Melaka, which is mostly in the Kota Melaka parliamentary seat.
The Hang Tuah Jaya seat is where the Melaka government administrative centre is located. The seat, which is famous for Asam Pedas, is made up of about 60% residential areas in the city centre, 20% suburbs and 20% villages.
With the redelineation, Shamsul, who unexpectedly defeated Umno’s Tan Sri Mohd Ali Mohd Rustam in GE13, said he was back to square one.
“Previously, I was a relatively new candidate against Mohd Ali, the Melaka Chief Minister. It was a huge challenge but I managed to win. But now I have to rethink my strategy to win the seat,” he said.
“It is a rather mission impossible for me to retain my seat as the polling districts I have been working in for the past five years have
suddenly disappeared.”
Bukit Katil’s voter demographic was 53% Malays and 47% non-Malays. Hang Tuah Jaya has 62% Malays and 38% non-Malays.
In GE13, Shamsul’s winning formula for Bukit Katil was to work on 35% of the Malay voters, 85% of the Chinese voters and 50% of the Indian voters. For Hang Tuah Jaya, since the number of Malay voters has increased, he will need to get 45% of their votes, 85% from Chinese and 50% from Indians.
“I have to put more focus on the Malay areas and balance it with the Chinese and Indian areas,” he said.
Mohd Ali, who is likely to repeat his 2013 fight with Shamsul, said his main challenge in winning the seat
is to win back the confidence of the Chinese and first-time voters.
“Barisan Nasional promises to bring big changes to Hang Tuah Jaya if it wins,” he said.
The Umno veteran said the task of winning it is easier because 62% of the voters are Malays. With 20% support of total Chinese voters, he believes the seat can be recaptured.
“For the past five years, the voters have been disappointed that they have been left out of development,” he said.
Dr Muhammad Asri Mohd Ali, a research fellow with the National Council of Professors, said most of the votes Shamsul received in GE13 was from Ayer Keroh (56% Chinese), Bachang (46% Chinese) and Bukit Baharu (33% Chinese).
“With the redelineation, Shamsul needs to rely more on the Malay voters, which is going to be difficult as PAS will also put up a candidate,” he said.
“Pak Ali (Mohd Ali) just needs to focus on the Malay voters as the ethnic composition of Hang Tuah Jaya has been changed from a mixed seat to a Malay-dominated seat.”
On the day Parliament was dissolved, Shamsul was out pressing the flesh at Taman Sin Hoe.
“Kita sudah kurang, apa macam YB? (There are fewer of us now, so how, YB?)” a 40-something Chinese man asked Shamsul.
“Don’t worry, with the current issues surely there will be a Malay shift. We only need 7% increase in Malay votes,” the Bukit Katil MP told the worried voter.
“Kita hanya 65%. Bagaimana YB? (The Hang Tuah voters is only 65% compared to the number of Bukit Katil voters in GE13. How, YB?)” asked a 50-something Chinese man.
Some of his supporters who have been transferred to Kota Melaka have even asked Shamsul whether they could change their voting address to their relative or friend’s in Hang Tuah Jaya. The Bukit Katil representative told them that it was too late to change.
The challenge Shamsul faces now is to calm the shaky confidence of Pakatan Harapan supporters who are worried about the impact of the carving up of Bukit Katil.
“Many of my voters, especially the Chinese, think it will be tough for me to defend my seat. They have asked me, ‘how can you win when the Election Commission has transferred 25,000 voters out?’” he said.
Although Shamsul is optimistic about his chances of retaining Hang Tuah Jaya despite the redelineation exercise, he considers himself an underdog in GE14.