BN well entrenched in Sarawak, say analysts

KUCHING: After a campaign dominated by local rather than national issues in Sarawak, Barisan Nasional looks set to take back some Chinese-majority seats.

Of the state’s 31 parliamentary seats, analysts expect Barisan to retain the rural seats while wresting one or two of the six Chinese-majority seats from the Opposition.

“Barisan didn’t do much campaigning in PBB (Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu) areas as PBB is solid,” said University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute director Prof James Chin.

“In Iban and Dayak areas Saratok and Baram, PKR’s Ali Biju and Roland Engan are seen as the only serious contenders.

“In Chinese areas, SUPP (Sarawak United People’s Party) will get back one or two seats. They are very likely to win back Sarikei and they have a chance in Miri.”

Among the state Barisan component parties, PBB is contesting 14 seats, SUPP seven, Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) six and Progressive Democratic Party (PDP) four.

Only parliamentary seats are being contested in Sarawak as the state election was held in 2016.

On the Stampin hot seat, Chin said it was 50:50 between SUPP president Datuk Dr Sim Kui Hian and state DAP chairman Chong Chieng Jen.

“Everything depends on the Chinese turnout. If it is high, DAP will win,” said Chin.

He observed that the election campaign reflected Sarawak’s “unique situation”, which was “insulated” from Peninsular Malaysia.

Local issues, particularly Sarawak’s rights, were at the forefront of the campaign rather than national issues, he noted.

“What is really interesting is that SUPP and the state Barisan have been saying that they have nothing to do with Umno or the Federal Barisan. I’m surprised that the reaction to this has been muted and that some people believe it,” said Chin.

“My take is that Sarawakians become emotional when it comes to Sarawak nationalism. Sarawakians like to believe that they live in a bubble and that whatever happens in Peninsular Malaysia will not affect them.”

Assoc Prof Jeniri Amir from Universiti Malaysia Sarawak said Barisan was likely to win 27 seats, including two urban seats.

“It’s not likely for the Opposition to win rural seats because of Barisan’s better machinery.

“Rural voters mostly depend on the politics of development and I think Barisan has managed to convince them that they will be able to fulfil their promises.

“Also, I don’t expect many young voters to go back to their rural constituencies to vote because Gawai is very near. They will go back for Gawai,” he said, referring to the harvest festival which falls on June 1 and 2.

However, Prof Jeniri said Barisan still faces a tough challenge in rural seats like Selangau, Lubok Antu, Saratok and Puncak Borneo due to candidate-related issues.

“In Puncak Borneo, it has to do with the integrity of the candidate while in Selangau and Lubok Antu, it’s because of the action taken by PRS (in sacking incumbents Datuk Joseph Entulu and Datuk William Nyallau Badak a week before nomination).

“There have been strong protests in Lubok Antu as the Barisan candidate is not local,” Prof Jeniri said.

“In short, some sabotaging on the ground may make it difficult for Barisan.”