Close race on the cards in Umno election
Grassroots favour Ku Li as president
PETALING JAYA: It’s D-Day tomorrow for Umno as it votes for a new line-up of top leaders after Barisan Nasional’s general election wipeout.
Less than 24 hours to the party polls, grassroots feedback shows that Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah is the favourite for party president, Umno insiders and political analysts say.
However, division leaders and those higher in the party hierarchy are more inclined towards Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
The third key contender – Khairy Jamaluddin – is seen as a possible dark horse candidate, popular with younger voting delegates.
“Most division leaders say they back Zahid but it’s a different story at the grassroots where Tengku Razaleigh and even Khairy appear to have better prospects.
“This shows there is no clear frontrunner and that it’s likely going to be a close race,” said Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Prof Sivamurugan Pandian.
Aside from Dr Ahmad Zahid, Tengku Razaleigh and Khairy, two relatively unknowns have also thrown their hats into the ring – Bandar Tun Razak division committee member Mohamed Iqbal Maricair and Mohd Yusof Musa from the Iskandar Puteri division.
On paper, Dr Ahmad Zahid who is carrying out the duties of the president, is hands down the strongest candidate.
He can rely on the advantage of incumbency and a strong rapport with division leaders.
“Zahid is the de facto acting president and seen as a steady pair of hands, so the thinking for many in Umno is why not just give him a chance to formally assume the top post.
“But there is also this feeling in the party that Zahid should also be held accountable for the general election losses,” said Sivamurugan.
Powerful Umno leaders who are not in the race for the presidency could also influence the outcome, said Dr Muhammad Asri Mohd Ali from Universiti Malaya.
Chief among them is incumbent vice-president Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein who has opted only to defend his Sembrong division chief post instead of also going for a higher post.
Hishammuddin, notes Muhammad Asri, has long been seen as a rival to Dr Ahmad Zahid.
“Hishammuddin is not contesting the top post, so who among his many supporters will vote for president is also a factor,” said Muhammad Asri.
In 2013, Umno upped the number of voting delegates from about 2,500 to more than 160,000 to make it harder for candidates to buy votes.
Despite the increase in voters, critics say the influential party division chiefs can still cajole many of their voting delegates to support their choices.
But it could be different this time.
The vast majority voting tomorrow aren’t party warlords or fat cats with vested interests but ordinary members. Many still harbour the same anger felt by voters who pushed Barisan out of power.
A strong enough desire for a clean break with the previous leadership could propel Tengku Razaleigh to a win.
The Kelantan prince has mounted an intense campaign, making stops in as many as four states a day to attend Hari Raya and other outreach events.
“Many branch chiefs and older delegates have promised to support Tengku Razaleigh.
“For them, he’s the only one capable of taking on Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad,” said an insider close to Tengku Razaleigh’s camp.
The Umno poll, like any other election, is a numbers game. The question is whether Tengku Razaleigh’s broad grassroots appeal will translate into enough votes.
In Tengku Razaleigh’s own home state of Kelantan, for example, the state Umno has officially declared that it supports Dr Ahmad Zahid for president.
Tengku Razaleigh’s age could also work against him. He’s 80, and while Dr Mahathir is much older, the Prime Minister’s appeal is, among others, due to the fact that he leads a coalition that has many young and progressive leaders with new ideas.
This is where Khairy’s appeal lies. For many including younger members, the 42-year-old former Youth and Sports Minister represents fresh thinking at the top which the party badly needs.
A former Umno Youth member involved in Khairy’s campaign said he received strong support from Sabah during his recent visit to the state, which has a large pool of voting delegates.
“Khairy promised that if he wins, he will closely consult Sabah Umno in the appointment of the state party chief.
“He promised that PWTC (Putra World Trade Centre which is where the Umno headquarters is located) will no longer be dictating terms to Sabah Umno, and the floor erupted in cheers of support,” said the insider.
There are mixed views on whether Khairy will end up splitting Dr Ahmad Zahid’s or Tengku Razaleigh’s votes, and if it will be enough to land him the top job.