Major increase in heatwave deaths predicted as world warms

THE death toll from heatwaves could rise by up to 2,000% in some parts of the world by 2080, according to a new study. Heatwaves sweeping through the northern hemisphere have been dominating the news in recent weeks, with dozens of deaths registered from Japan to Canada.

Just two weeks into Japan’s blistering heat wave, at least 80 people died and thousands had to be rushed to emergency rooms as temperatures exceeded 40°C in some areas.

In Karachi, Pakistan, more than 60 people died when the temperature rose above 40°C .

The researchers behind the latest study say it is the largest death toll of heatwaves yet – and they predict it will only increase in frequency and severity.

“Future heatwaves in particular will be more frequent, more intense and will last much longer,” says Yuming Guo, associate professor at Monash University.

“If we cannot find a way to mitigate the climate change (reduce the heatwave days) and help people adapt to heatwaves, there will be a big increase of heatwave-related deaths in the future.”

Scientists have long warned that climate change will bring more extreme weather across the globe from heatwaves to hurricanes.

The past three years were the hottest on record according to the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization in March. The World Health Organization says heat stress, linked to climate change, is likely to cause 38,000 extra deaths a year worldwide between 2030 and 2050.

The new study, published in the online journal PLOS Medicine, looks at 20 countries on four continents and estimates the rise in mortality likely to be highest near the equator.

Hardest-hit Colombia could suffer 2,000% more premature deaths from extreme heat during the period of 2031 to 2080 compared with 1971 to 2010, it says.

The Philippines and Brazil are also likely to see large increases in numbers of premature deaths, while countries located further from the equator such as the United States and European nations would see smaller hikes.

However, even under best-case scenarios – where planet-warming emissions were curbed and population increases low – deaths would increase, says the study.

During heatwaves, defined as at least two consecutive days of abnormally hot temperatures, the body cannot dissipate heat, leaving older adults in particular at risk of suffering from medical conditions such as heat stroke.

The study highlights the need to take measures now to avert a future public health crisis. Heat is neglected because it is both an invisible and hard-to-document disaster, say the researchers.

Another study by Stanford University shows that hotter weather is linked to increases in suicides, after examining decades worth of temperature data against suicide rates in US counties and Mexican municipalities, some dating back to the 1960s.

The report projects that if global warming were not capped by 2050, there could be at least an additional 21,000 suicides in the US and Mexico alone.

But due to climate change, the global temperature is rising, making heat waves likely more frequent, warns Sven Harmeling, head of climate change and resilience policy at aid group CARE International.

“Climate change is altering weather patterns, and we have to prepare for more of these consequences.”

“We will have to get used to these kinds of summers,” Friederike Otto, deputy director at the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University concurs.

“There is no doubt that there is a link to climate change. We need to take heatwaves seriously around the world as something that we need to adapt to.” Poorer communities will suffer the most, warns Frank Rijsberman, head of the Global Green Growth Institute, which helps developing countries adopt clean energy to boost their economies and reduce carbon emissions.

“In developed countries, we have resources, we have money, we have systems, we can manage. But in developing countries, where resilience is very low, people are hit much harder,” he says.

About 1.1 billion people in Asia, Africa and Latin America are at risk from a lack of air conditioning to keep them cool as global warming brings more high temperatures, the non-profit Sustainable Energy for All says in a recent study.

“The most vulnerable in society will be most affected because those are the people who do not have the air-conditioned offices to go to, the people who have to work outside to make a living,” says Otto.

“They will be hit very hard by these increasing risks and heat waves,” she adds.–