Dicey political games

Both PH and BN’s future depends on how they resolve several outstanding issues affecting them.

POLITICALLY, the Pakatan Harapan government has focused heavily on the past and not enough on the future.

Faced with a steep learning curve, it has looked inwardly to address the difficult situation it has inherited. It has also focused on debt and 1MDB.

That’s how Bridget Welsh, a John Cabot University associate professor of political science, describes its first 100 days.

“It was necessary but at the same juncture many people are waiting for deliverables and there will come a time when they expect the government to be addressing things in a more concrete fashion than what it is cur- rently doing and for it to lay out its vision for the future,” said Welsh, who is a Malaysian politics expert.

According to Universiti Utara Malaysia political lecturer Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani, the most significant event during Pakatan’s 100 days is the formation of the Cabinet. To be exact, the delay in forming a full Cabinet.

Except for four key ministers, Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad only named a full Cabinet almost two months after his coalition won the May 9 general elections.

“The delay resulted in the Pakatan government late in taking action to fulfil its ten 100 days promises,” says Mohd Azizuddin.

The other significant political events in the 100 days are the disintegration of Barisan Nasional, the Umno elections, the PKR polls, the perceived Dr Mahathir and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim fight and the Sungai Kandis by-election.

From a strong 13-party coalition, Barisan is reduced to three parties - Umno, MCA and MIC.

The collapse of the coalition after it lost in GE14 was inevitable, says Welsh.

“The end of Barisan will mean that Umno has no working vehicle to win support across races and find a return path to national power across races,” she says.

For Mohd Azizuddin, Malaysia needs a strong and not a weak Barisan so that it can check and balance the PH government. The opposition - Barisan, PAS, GPS and other parties - has a formidable number in terms of MPs but it is divided, he says.

On July 1, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi won the Umno presidency. He defeated Khairy Jamaluddin and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

“If Ku Li (Razaleigh) or Khairy had won, it would have been a new Umno. With Zahid as president, it seems that the party will be unable to gain popular support as it can’t divorce itself from corruption and abuse of power of the previous administration as those leading the party are still old faces,” says Mohd Azizuddin.

The party polls, says Welsh, ended up with a non-reformed Umno which former president and prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak still plays a prominent role.

Two outstanding issues continue to percolate: 1) there’s pressures for the party to reform as well as many members wanting to sever their relationship with Najib. 2) Umno is choosing a path which Welsh calls “the post GE14 environment of politics of victimisation”.

“It is using this (politics of victimisation) as a way to galvanise support in the Malay community and particularly around Najib and it is extending to others who have been displaced in the system. And this is gaining traction and it is not handled well by the Pakatan government,” she says.

The ongoing PKR polls, according to Welsh, is a test on whether Anwar can control the party that he founded.

“He lost control of the party in the Kajang Move of 2014 and now he is trying to regain control. Using the division in the party, he is playing off his people at the deputy president level,” she opines.

“The question is how much and how deep will the split be. What happens in PKR will affect the stability of Pakatan.”

Now that Anwar is finally the president of PKR, says Mohd Azizuddin, he has the legitimacy to be the next prime minister.

On the two PKR leaders’ allegation that Dr Mahathir is plotting to stop Anwar from becoming prime minister, Mohd Azizuddin says the former would honour his promise and pass the premiership to the latter.

“People are saying that there is a rivalry between Dr Mahathir and Anwar. That issue is played by Umno and those who don’t like to see the two collaborate,” he adds.

According to Welsh, three months after becoming Malaysia’s seventh Prime Minister, Dr Mahathir remains popular. “Polls show Anwar’s popularity has dropped and he has not yet shown that he is committed to working collaboratively with the Pakatan members,” she says.

The implication of the Sungai Kandis by-election points to the unspoken Umno and Pas relationship that is consolidating, she adds.

Pakatan’s by-election victory, says Mohd Azizuddin, showed it still had the people’s support. “Barisan brought up issues such as Pakatan’s failure to fulfil its 100-day manifesto but the voters still preferred Pakatan. You will probably see similar results in the Balakong and Seri Setia by-elections,” he adds.

Politically, it is still a honeymoon period for the Pakatan government. Malaysians will give it more time to govern and fulfil its promises. They don’t really have choice since the alternative is a broken Barisan.