Expect the expected

The High Court settled the legal question of the rightful Sabah Chief Minister last month, but a power tremor is expected to shake up the fluid and unsettled state politics.

SABAH politics is akin to the unsettled land around Mount Kinabalu, the highest mountain in the country.

“One of the reasons you will feel a little tremor from Mount Kinabalu from time to time is beause it is a young mountain and the land around it is perpetually moving. And that reflects the state of affairs in Sabah politics,” said Sabah Umno secretary Datuk Masidi Manjun.

Masidi, the assemblyman for Karanan, one of three state seats in Ranau parliamentary constituency where Mount Kinabalu is partially located, noted that the Sabah government was also young as it was formed six months ago.

“People are still probably dreaming of options – if they are not looking for options. Just like the land around Mount Kinabalu, Sabah politics is still very much fluid and unsettled,” he said.

Some people, according to Masidi, were saying that Sabah politics was now settled.

“My answer is yes and no,” he said. “Yes, because there is a new government with a majority. No, because – and many don’t realise this –no party won outright the last state polls.”

The only reason, Masidi said, a government was formed, felled, and formed again was simply because of the constant political manoeuvring in Sabah politics.

“A government was not formed because a party won outright but because Sabah politicians have too much in their mind and they are always dreaming that they will end up in a different camp the next day,” he said.

On May 9, Barisan Nasional won 29 state seats, Parti Warisan Sabah/ Pakatan Harapan (29) and Sabah Star (two) in the 60 seats state assembly. Barisan combined with Sabah Star, led by Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan, and Tan Sri Musa Aman was reappointed Sabah Chief Minister.

Two days later, Musa’s government fell when Yang di-Pertua Negri Tun Juhar Mahiruddin decided that Warisan president Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal had the majority when six assemblymen from Umno and Upko ditched Barisan.

This triggered a legal question on who was the rightful Sabah Chief Minister. On Nov 7, the High Court in Kota Kinabalu decided it was Shafie and not Musa.

“The High Court judgement gave a sense of relief and some sort of moral victory for Shafie and Warisan supporter,” said political analyst Mohd Rahezzal Shah.

However, Sabah politics did not stabilise after the two Sabah Chief Ministers case was decided.

“Musa has indicated that he will appeal against the decision. This strategy is mainly to rally the supporters of Musa and Barisan otherwise there is the likelihood that the support will decimate,” said Mohd Rahezzal, who is a UiTM lecturer in Sabah.

Sabah politics is fluid, so Mohd Rahezzal thinks it might take more than a year before the situation would stabilise.

“But that is quite common in any newly formed coalition government, especially in the case of Sabah, where defection occurs quite rampantly,” he said.

“YBs (assemblymen) switch allegiance in a blink of an eye. This will only cause speculation and specula- tion will only create anxiety,” he said.

A Warisan insider agreed that the political ground in Sabah was continually shifting. But, he said, it was shifting to his party’s favour.

“Warisan won 21 seats and four assemblymen jumped, resulting in us having 25 assemblymen. The buzz in town is that assemblymen from Umno and PBS will ditch their party and become Warisan-friendly independent assemblymen. So Warisan will not be shaky,” he said.

Indeed, Sabah politicians have many options. Probably too many.

One assemblyman who thought he had options was Datuk Masiung Banah. On Nov 24, the Kuamut assemblyman ditched Upko to be a Sabah government-friendly assemblyman.

There were various reasons for Banah’s quitting a party which is part of the Sabah government coalition. One of them was his longstanding misunderstanding with the Upko president.

However, there are talks in Sabah that the Warisan/PH/Upko government could not take care of some of their YBs who thought that winning a seat would make them instant millionaires.

That is why if Musa had won the two Sabah Chief Ministers case, there would have been Warisan, Upko and ex-Umno assemblymen who would have jumped to join his government, said a Sabah Umno insider who did not want to be identified.

One of the minefields ahead of the government of Shafie is the PTI ( pendatang tanpa izin or illegal immigrants) issue which had dogged him since the formation of his party in 2016. The other minefield is the Dec 13 special sitting to vote on the extension of the Yang di-Pertua Negri’s term which expires in December.

“The PTI is the big elephant in the room (apart from the issue of autonomy, specifically financial autonomy) that Warisan government needs to address,” said Mohd Rahezzal.

It is a big issue among Ori Sabahans (original) who fear that there will be a major legitimisation of Photocopy Sabahans (fake). Warisan has denied there is such a move, but some Sabahans are still suspicious.

As for the vote to change the state constitution to allow the extension of Yang di-Pertua Negri’s two terms, the Warisan insider said the voting pattern would indicate how stable the state government was.

“Let’s see who supports the amendment. There were opposition assemblymen who voted for the state budget,” he said.

In the last 20 to 30 years of Sabah political history, observed Masidi, there was no occasion where Sabah politics was stable.

“There has always been political movement here and there. The only big question is whether it was big enough to destabilise the government,” he said.

“Currently, it is like the land around Kundasang (on the foot of Mount Kinabalu) – there’s little movement here and there and it is waiting for a big one.”

The big tremor depends on what happens in the centre, Masidi said.

“I mean as such as we would like to avoid discussing the issue but the fact is whatever happens in the leadership issue in Kuala Lumpur, there will be repercussion in Sabah,” he said.

“One of the reasons there are perceived rumblings and instability in Sabah are because they are waiting for the KL leadership to be resolved.”

There is a wait-and-see attitude among some of the Sabah politicians. They are waiting for political manoeuvring within the Warisan/ PH/Upko government, legal appeal on the two Sabah Chief Ministers case, whether PPBM (Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia) will enter Sabah and the outcome of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad vs Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim fight.

“Against this backdrop, both opposition and the Warisan-led Sabah government are in a precarious situation. The opposition cannot perform their job effectively as opposition and the govt are under constant threat of ‘froglition’,” said Mohd Rahezzal, referring to the term frog which Sabahans used to describe assemblyman or MP who jumps to another party.

This month, just like the loose soil in the foot of Mount Kinabalu, a political realignment is expected to take place in Sabah. Expect the expected.