2018: End of an era

This is the last day of a landmark year, both nationally with the collapse of the old regime, and globally with the crumbling of the post-1945 world liberal order.

WHAT a year it’s been, for Malaysians and the world! Truly a historic landmark 2018. And the new year promises to be even more eventful.

Three things catapulted Malaysia to the top of the global news. First, the continuing drama of 1MDB (1Malaysia Development Bhd). With one revelation after another, the country had the awful reputation of having the greatest conmen perpetrating the greatest financial fraud of recent times.

Second, against all odds, the 61-year-old Umno-led regime was overthrown and Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad re-emerged as prime minister through a tumultuous general election. Within weeks, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was pardoned and released. He then went on to win a Parliamentary seat in a by-election.

Third, Malaysia was held up as a rare example of how citizens outraged by corrupt leaders in an authoritarian state could effect change through the vote without bloodshed.

History shows that after an uprising or overthrow of a dictator, there often is chaos, violence, a reinstatement of the old regime or a long period of anarchy as warlords or competing ideologies fight it out.

Malaysia’s political transition has in comparison been smooth and non-violent, which holds a democratic promise for our region. The prosecution of the old corrupt leaders and other crooks has proceeded with vigour. The malpractices in the Finance Ministry and agencies like Tabung Haji and Felda are being exposed. These have been among the notable achievements.

But the general euphoria from the May 9 general election has dissipated as the realities of the old society are increasingly clashing with the promises of a new Malaysia. This shows that May 9 was only the tip; the rest of the iceberg has to be reshaped in terms of new policies and democratic practices, if we are to achieve long-lasting and positive structural change.

Two other major challenges have emerged as the year ends. First, Pakatan Harapan has to work through the differences between their parties and leaders, as well as within each component party. This is extremely complex as it involves strong personalities and each party’s ideas on policy reform.

Second, there are clear signs of a weakening domestic economy, in line with unfavourable global trends.

These include a sharp fall in oil prices (which disturbs the government budget projections), the low prices of palm oil and rubber (causing more hardship for smallholders), the rising cost of living, and uncertainties regarding the ringgit, capital flows and the stock market.

The work is thus cut out for the Harapan government in the new year. It will need to deal with multiple immediate problems, even crises, while simultaneously moving forward with righting the wrongs of the old regime, and coming up with new policy measures to build a new society.

We the citizens can only hope and pray that the seeds planted in 2018 will grow into green healthy plants in 2019.

At global level, 2018 was also a landmark year, but not for the better.

United States President Donald Trump plunged ahead with his “America First” strategy. Hopes that the weight of high office would move him more to the centre were dashed when he upgraded ultraright persons to his inner circle, while a string of less ultra officials left one by one.

By year end, Trump was in a position to do as he pleases, and what seems to give him most pleasure is to disrupt the US and global establishment.

He got the US to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US embassy there. He pulled the US out from the nuclear deal with Iran. He announced the pulling out of a nuclear arms treaty with Russia.

Trump raised the stakes in the US trade war with China. The 90-day truce declared by the presidents of the two countries in early December may be a temporary lull. But the Trump team has decided on much more than just a fight to reduce the US trade deficit with China.

It wants to stop China’s progress as a leading global industrial power. China may agree to increase imports from the US, but nobody expects China to back away from its plan to be a world economic leader.

But Trump’s fight goes beyond China. He has slapped higher duties on some products from Europe, Canada, Japan, Mexico and others and promises more to come.

His unilateral measures undermine the once iron-clad rules of the World Trade Organization, which he openly threatens to paralyse.

But these are not simply the acts of a crazy US president, which can be overturned by a saner successor.

It became clearer in 2018 that the global liberal order, established in 1945 to prevent another world war and to stabilise the global economy, is coming under serious attack.

We would expect this attack to come from the people in less developed countries that have been left out of the general progress. But in fact, many of those who are against the global liberal order are citizens of developed nations.

Many of those in the developed world have borne the brunt of the ill effects of globalisation, as factories and jobs moved to low-wage countries and as immigrants moved in, especially in the European Union, but also the US.

The inequalities of globalisation, with the bottom half increasingly angry while the top 20% enjoy life as the global elite, formed the basis of rebellion against the free flow of goods, capital and labour.

It was the basis for Trump’s electoral support, and for Brexit, the riots in Paris, the loss of support for German leader Angela Merkel and the upsurge of so-called “populism”.

This is why 2018 will probably be seen as a landmark year, for the growth of the rebellion within the West against the global order its post-World War II leaders created. What 2019 will bring on this front remains to be seen.

Martin Khor is adviser of the Third World Network. The views expressed here are entirely his own.