Factors in by-election wins

IN the recently concluded Semenyih by-election, Barisan Nasional’s Zakaria Hanafi emerged victorious, garnering 19,780 votes, 1,914 more than Pakatan Harapan’s Muhammad Aiman Zainali (17,866). PSM’s Nik Aziz Afiq garnered 845 votes and independent Kuan Chee Heng got 725.

While many Barisan supporters are revelling in the recapture of Semenyih less than 10 months after losing it in the 14th General Election, there is much to consider especially in the underlying “seismic” activities that are at play, leading to what many say was a Malay mini-tsunami on March 2, as Barisan managed a comfortable win in all the 17 Malay majority (more than 70% Malays) areas in both popular votes and percentage of votes.

For GE14 (2018), Barisan managed to secure only 35% of Malay support on average in these same areas. Malay support for Barisan back then was also rather divergent – it was only 18% in Bukit Mahkota (94% Malay voters) but a higher 65% in Sesapan Batu Rembau (98% Malay voters).

But within just 10 months, Barisan’s support in these Malay polling districts had risen from 35% to a staggering 59% while Pakatan’s average support waned from 44% (GE14) to 36% (Semenyih by-election), even taking into account that there was an overall drop in the turnout – from 87.7% to 73.3%.

Barisan’s victory and the return of Malay voters in the Semenyih by-election could be attributed to a few factors. Not discounting the Najib “Bossku” influence in the higher turnout among Malay voters, this return of Malay voters to Barisan is certainly a clear message to the ruling parties of state and federal governments that “enough is enough”.

While some have brushed it off as sheer luck, it was also due to the poor decisions and disorganised coordination and communication on the Pakatan side. The poor choice of candidate and hollow yet dramatic government announcements before the by-election, such as the meagre RM100 cost of living aid for single individuals and university students, and the halfbaked plans for toll abolition, did indeed help Barisan gain some momentum.

Moreover, the string of excuses given by the government in the past months for not fulfilling its 2018 general election promises do not hold water when the economy is struggling, consumer confidence is low and the people continue to face high cost of living. The Malaysian public was expecting the government and its Cabinet members to pay more attention to addressing the hardships and challenges faced by the people. But instead, much time and public resources were spent on politicking, mud-slinging and initiatives that do not bring much value to the people, including the flying car!

Meanwhile, Barisan managed to regroup and restrategise, and seems to have hit the right formula in the last two by-elections by fielding down-to-earth candidates with whom voters can relate to, and not seasoned politicians from the party’s hierarchy.

While Malay votes have indeed returned to Barisan, this does not seem to be the case among the hardcore Pakatan Chinese supporters. Results in Kampung Baharu Semenyih (82% Chinese) show that Barisan managed to gain a bit more Chinese votes – 13.1% compared to 12.1% in 2018.

Barisan’s victory was also partly helped by the lower turnout of Chinese voters who intended to demonstrate their frustration towards Pakatan and were not ready yet to make a choice of which party to support. This is indeed a silver lining for Barisan as the hardcore supporters may be turning their backs on Pakatan.

Poll results in the same Kampung Baharu Semenyih Chinese voting district show a drop in Pakatan support from 81% (2018) to 79%.

So, while statistically there was no significant return of Chinese votes to Barisan, neither was there any increase. But there was a reduction in Chinese votes for Pakatan. The lacklustre Chinese support for Barisan concurrent with the drop in their support for Pakatan was, in huge part, a retaliation to the insensitive statements made by high-ranking Barisan/Umno leaders during the Semenyih campaign.

Chinese voters were somewhat angered by the racist and highly seditious statement made by Barisan secretary-general Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz on vernacular schools as well as by deputy chairman Mohammad Hasan’s remark that “there’s too many penumpang in Parliament”.

In that perspective, while not all hope is lost for MCA, the Chinesebased component party of Barisan (at the time of publication), there is still much that needs to be done to recapture the hearts and minds of this community. It is important that MCA remains steadfast in representing the second largest minority group in the country, and strike that balance between standing up for Chinese interests and all Malaysians.

MCA’s approach in highlighting the weaknesses and flaws of the Pakatan government, especially its disappointing performance as administrators and policy makers, has done some damage to the ruling coalition. This must not be the only trick in their playbook, however. Moving forward, MCA would need to diversify and reimagine its game plan. As a consistent proponent for true democracy, MCA ought to accept that while this is a promising victory for Barisan, it would also act as a continuous wake-up call for MCA to strive to be better at representing Malaysians, and to strengthen and review its approach in becoming a relevant political party among the Chinese.

Barisan’s victory in Semenyih following the Cameron Highlands by-election may not just be spelling a return of confidence for it or a loss of faith for the Pakatan government. It may well spell the birth of a third force.

The cosiness and intimacy between Umno and PAS, as seen in the last two by-elections, cannot be ignored. With the voting pattern in these by-elections trending towards communal politics, and with the Semenyih win being hailed as a Malay mini-tsunami, coupled with the Chinese voters standing resolute against Barisan (read MCA), the future bodes well for the partnership between these two champions and fighters for Malays. The current politic landscape seems to be conducive for Umno and PAS to galvanise further. Please watch this space.

DR PAMELA YONG Deputy chairman Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (INSAP)