A poll to end all coups?
IF the Thai polls are a 750m race, Phalang Pracharat (military junta proxy party) starts at 250m while Pheu Thai (Thaksin Shinawatra’s party) starts at 0m.
Today, Thais go to the polls five years after the military seized power to oust an elected government.
The electoral odds are stacked in favour of the military junta to remain in power.
There will be 750 representatives – 500 MP posts (constituency and party lists) from the lower house of Parliament (like our Dewan Rakyat) up for grabs and 250 from the upper house (like our Dewan Negara) comprising junta appointees and military brass.
These 500 elected MPs and 250 unelected Senators will decide who will be Prime Minister.
In theory, the junta needs parties aligned to it, such as Phalang Pracharat, to have 126 MPs win seats, as it has 250 senators (who are not elected, remember). The math is 126 + 250 = 376, which is a simple majority.
Whereas Pheu Thai and its allies have to have 376 MPs win to form the government, as the 250 senators are all junta appointees.
Pheu Thai also faces other electoral disadvantages.
For example, the remaining lower house members are elected by proportional representation from party lists. But the provisional Constitution is designed to hand more of these seats to smaller parties.
Meaning, Pheu Thai might have more winning MP (seats) but by winning more of these seats, it would get fewer party list MPs.
Thaksin tried to overcome this by creating a second party, Thai Raksa Chart, to pick up the party list MPs.
However, the junta disbanded ThaiRaksaChartonMarch7 after it proposed Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Bar-navadi, the sister of the Thai King, as its Prime Minister candidate.
Thailand’s military government, according to Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch, has failed to create conditions for a free and fair national election.
“The process of forming a new government, in which the junta-appointed Senate will have half the total number of votes for the next government as the elected House of Representatives, severely undermines the right of Thai citizens to choose their leaders,” he said.
Since the 2014 coup, the Thai military has made repeated promises to restore democratic rule, but the generals have set up this election to ensure continued military rule in suits instead of uniforms, Adams said.
“The junta has kept repressive laws, dissolved the main opposition party, taken control of the electoral commission, and handpicked a Senate with the power to thwart the will of the Thai people,” he said.
Since 2001, Thaksin’s parties – Thai Rak Thai (TRT), People Power Party (PPP, a reincarnation of TRT which was banned by the military junta) and Pheu Thai (the reincarnation of the banned PPP) – have won all general elections.
The only way the military could oust Thaksin and his parties was through a coup. In 2006, the junta overthrew the TRT government. In 2014, it did the same to Thaksin’s sister Yingluck, who is Thailand’s first and only female Prime Minister.
General Prayut Chan-o-cha, the leader of the coup that was supposed to end all coups, installed himself as the Prime Minister. Prayut is not contesting in the Thai elections but he might get himself appointed as Prime Minister.
How’s that possible?
If his party, Palang Pracharat, and parties aligned to it cobbled together enough MPs – it needs only 126 – the junta coalition could appoint him as the PM.
Thaksin’s Pheu Thai is likely to win the most MPs for any single party. But it might not be enough for Pheu Thai and its allies, such as the Future Forward Party, to get 376 MPs.
The likely scenario would be the party, which could persuade parties such as the Democrats to join its coalition, would be able to form the next Thai government.
The bulk of the Pheu Thai support will come from the north and north-east of the country where Thaksin is popular.
The Democrat party is expected to win seats mainly in its traditional strongholds in the south and in Bangkok.
Phalang Pracharat is expected to win seats mainly in the north and north-east. These are seats which Thaksin’s party used to win but the MPs have defected and joined the junta’s party.
The Future Forward Party, which is led by a young billionaire, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, is hoping that it will be the choice of millennials. Which party will win tonight? Sean Boonpracong, a former national security adviser to Prime Minister Yingluck, said Pheu Thai and allies could still win enough votes. But it will not be easy after the dissolution of Thai Raksa Chart.
“The prediction for the democracy side (parties opposing the junta) winning changed after Thai Raksa Chart was disbanded,” he said. “It will be a huge toss up as the junta only needs to get 126 MPs to form the government.”
There are two likely scenarios for tonight’s results, according to Pravit Rojanaphruk, an awardwinning columnist at Bangkokbased English-language news portal KhaosodEnglish.com.
The first scenario is pro-junta Palang Pracharat Party forms a coalition with Prayuth as Prime Minister and the help of the Prayuth-appointed 250-member Senate voting for him. However, there is a caveat. “If the coalition government has fewer than 250 MPs and Prayuth only manages to become PM due to the help of the Senate, then his mandate and legitimacy will be in doubt,” said Rojanaphruk.
“He also risks not surviving a no-confidence vote by the lower House in the not too distant future.”
The second scenario is the anti-junta pro-democracy camp forming a coalition led by Pheu Thai and Future Forward.
“In this scenario, the challenge would be how they will reform the army, which is a state within a state, and send them back to the barracks for good,” Rojanaphruk said.
“Reducing the military budget will be difficult but more difficult will be how they can create a consensus in society to reform the armed forces and make it professional and non-political.”
He continued: “Already, the current army chief has refused to make a public commitment that the army will not stage a military coup again.”
Rojanaphruk said ideas – such as creating a joint chiefs of staff system like in the United States – had been floated to stop the army chief from being able to order troops around by himself but they are likely to meet resistance.
“A small but significant section of the public, particularly a good percentile of the educated elites and the upper-right continue to be fodder for a future coup,” he said.
Tonight’s results might pave the way for an unstable coalition government. Prayut might need another coup to end all coups.