IS loss affirms Pentagon plan, but end game vague as US leaves

WASHINGTON: Now that the Islamic State group has officially lost its geographic “caliphate”, the Pentagon is marking a historic moment in its years-long campaign to defeat the militants.

From a military perspective at least, the United States can claim significant success in its strategy of working “by, with and through” local proxy forces, where a Kurdish militia in Syria and security forces in Iraq bore the brunt of the fighting – and dying.

But IS still has thousands of battle-hardened fighters across several countries, and questions loom over whether the group’s territorial loss can be parlayed into an enduring defeat – or whether President Donald Trump’s decision to pull most troops from Syria is premature, and risks ruining the end game.

“I’d be hesitant to use the term winning,” General Raymond Thomas, who heads US Special Operations Command, told lawmakers recently.

The objective is “to be able to maintain persistent capabilities so that an external threat cannot emanate from that in the future.”

Asked if he was satisfied the United States was at that point, Thomas said: “I do not think we’re there yet.”

How much the United States can influence things will only diminish after the Pentagon withdraws all but 200 of the 2,000 or so special forces from Syria that have been helping the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

Trump in December declared victory over IS, saying the United States had “beaten them badly” as he announced the pullout.

John Spencer, a scholar at the Modern War Institute at West Point, said things were not so simple.

“IS is a terrorist organisation, all they have to do is put down their weapons and try to blend in with the population and just escape,” he told reporters.

“They’re not gone, and they’re not going to be gone,” he said.