Who will form the next Thai govt?
Pheu Thai and Palang Pracharath need to form coalition to set up govt
Thaksin allies claim victory in the election, challenging the army. Pheu Thai leads with 137 of 350 constituency seats in an initial tally, followed by the military-backed Palang Pracharath party with 97 seats, according to the Election Commission.
BANGKOK: A political party linked to exiled tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra claimed victory in Thailand’s election and said it would seek to form a government, challenging a military-backed group that led in initial vote counts.
Pheu Thai led with 137 of 350 constituency seats in an initial tally, followed by the military-backed Palang Pracharath party with 97 seats, according to the Election Commission. The count, which didn’t include another 150 party-list seats, showed that both major parties would need to form a coalition to take power in the 500-member lower house of parliament.
“We’ll try to form a government coalition right away because that’s how people voted,” Sudarat Keyuraphan, Pheu Thai’s candidate for prime minister, told reporters yesterday, adding that the army-appointed Senate should follow the wishes of voters. “We stood by our position that we won’t support the continuation of the military regime.”
The comments indicate a showdown is emerging to form a government between pro-democracy forces and Thailand’s royalist and military elites, who have repeatedly sought to prevent Thaksin and his allies from taking power over the past two decades.
Previous confrontations have led to instability, gridlock, deadly street protests and coups.
The military-backed Palang Pracharath has also said it would seek to form a government. It won 7.7 million votes with 94% counted with Pheu Thai second at 7.23 million votes, according to unofficial results posted on the Election Commission’s Facebook page.
The Election Commission announced the winners of 350 constituencies at 4pm, after several delays in giving seat totals. It said that initial vote counts were accurate even though its computers were attacked. Official results won’t be known until May 9, several days after the coronation ceremony for King Maha Vajiralongkorn.
Investors initially appeared sanguine about the election results, with Thailand’s SET Index falling less than other Asian benchmarks amid a global sell-off triggered by economic growth concerns. The measure extended declines as trading resumed after the lunch break.
The results put junta chief Prayut Chan-ocha in position to stay in power, as Thailand’s election rules effectively tilt the playing field in favour of the military. The 250-member Senate appointed by the junta also gets a vote for prime minister, and it’s likely to back Prayut.
Either way, any coalition is likely to be weak and unwieldy, making it difficult to pass legislation in the lower house. Both Pheu Thai and Prayut would need to rely on a range of smaller regional parties to push through key policies.
While Sudarat didn’t mention any potential coalition partners, Pheu Thai would likely align with Future Forward, a new pro-democracy party that performed well in its first election. Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, the 40-year-old scion of a tycoon family who heads the party, questioned the credibility of the election and said the next administration is likely to be unstable.
“There might be another election, there might be another military intervention,” Thanathorn said. “Everything is still on the table.”
Sunday’s election followed one of the longest periods of military rule in Thailand, which has a history of elections followed by coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. Bloody street clashes between Thaksin’s supporters and critics have killed dozens over the past decade, deterring tourists and stifling economic growth during the worst of the unrest.
Thaksin’s opponents – a loose faction of soldiers, bureaucrats and wealthy Bangkok families with royal connections – have sought to keep him away from Thailand, in part because they view him as a threat to the monarchy.
The army ousted Thaksin in 2006, and eight years later Prayut deposed a government run by his sister Yingluck Shinawatra.
The next prime minister needs 376 votes in the bicameral National Assembly, which consists of the Senate and a 500-member House of Representatives.
The Election Commission has until May 9 to submit official results, after which lawmakers will pick a prime minister.
The military-drafted constitution, Thailand’s 20th since absolute monarchy ended in 1932, empowers appointed soldiers and bureaucrats at the expense of elected politicians.
The rules effectively make it easy for Prayut to become prime minister: With support from the Senate, he would need another 126 votes in the lower house to stay in power.
The military’s party emulated Thaksin’s populist formula in a bid to win more votes, proposing lower taxes, a minimum wage increase of more than 30%, and guaranteed prices for rubber, rice and sugar cane.
Prayut had already offered farmers funds for harvesting and provided low-income earners about US$10 per month to purchase household staples.