Polls in the time of Covid-19
Do we need to wait until the pandemic is over before holding any elections?
WITH Malaysia entering a third wave of Covid-19 infections in the wake of the Sabah state polls, members of the public are becoming fearful that another election may further exacerbate the health situation in Malaysia.
Questions are being raised as to whether it is suitable for us to hold elections now, and whether it is possible to defer until the infection rates subside.
Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM) political science lecturer Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani says unlike the United States presidential election – which happens every four years and where the next date is set for Nov 3 2020 – there is still time before Malaysia’s five-year term lapses in July 2023.
However, the situation is different for the Batu Sapi by-election and Sarawak state elections. The Batu Sapi by-election is ruled by the 60-day mandate and the Sarawak state polls should be held by Sept 7, 2021 under the Federal Constitution.
“In this context, we have to carry on with the Batu Sapi by-election but precautions need to be taken and standard operating procedures (SOPs) need to be followed.
“The Election Commission (EC) has the power to introduce strict regulations for SOP,” says Mohd Azizuddin.
Some suggestions mooted by Mohd Azizuddin is to ban instances s where close contact might happen like house-to-house campaigns and public ceramahs, moving campaigning instead to traditional and social media.
In the July Chini by-election and September Sabah state election, voters were given suggested voting times to reduce crowding.
Masks, temperature checks and hand sanitisers were required at polling stations. Restrictions were also introduced during campaigning such as limiting participants at ceramah and walkabouts.
The SOPs were formulated by the e EC, Health Ministry and related agencies.
While the Chini by-election took place fairly smoothly, the number of nationwide Covid-19 infections spiked shortly after the Sabah polls, , raising fears of more outbreaks if another election were to happen.
A media personnel who attended the Sabah elections said that enforcement was the biggest problem during the Sabah election.
“Some of the ceramah were quite cramped. I remember being in a tent and there were easily 40 people crammed in it.
“There were walkabouts as well and the ones I saw had barely any social distancing. A lot of the parties just didn’t care, it doesn’t matter what side they were on. It was all the same,” said the witness.
A few parties have said that they will sit out the Batu Sapi by-election to curb the spread of Covid-19. However, the Constitution requires for the seat to be filled within 60 days after turning vacant following the death of former de facto law minister Datuk Liew Vui Keong on Oct 2.
In his opinion piece in The Star on Thursday, constitutional expert Dr Shad Saleem explains that the Batu Sapi by-election is legally unavoidable. The Election Commission also maintains that the Batu Sapi polls still need to be carried out, but this time with stricter SOPs in light of increasing Covid-19 cases.
The only possibility for a postponement of Malaysia’s general elections would be if a state of emergency was declared, says Mohd Azizuddin. This opinion is shared by Shad Saleem.
Instead, other scenarios might take place to address ongoing political turmoil.
“If there are parties who claim they have new numbers to make up the majority, there is still no requirement for a new election.
“An election can only be triggered if the Prime Minister meets the King and the King agrees to dissolve parliament.
“The King can still refuse to accept those grounds for dissolution. He may say that since the fiveyear term is still there, the governing parties can just switch without going to the polls,” Mohd Azizuddin.
“Another possibility is that the political factions can form a reconciliation government. There are many alternative options and general elections are normally the last option,” he continues.
Whatever will be, Sarawak will still go to the polls by next year, says Mohd Azizuddin.
“There is no provision in the Constitution to delay general elections unless a state of emergency is declared and I don’t think that will happen. But new rules and regulations may be imposed to enforce social distancing and campaigning must be done via media channels.
“We are in the new normal, so some things need to change,” he says.
“Nowadays everyone uses WhatsApp to communicate and I don’t think it would be too difficult to get through to people. We have to use other mediums. Social Media. Facebook. WhatsApp. SMS. Radio.
“We can introduce candidates through traditional and online media but it must be fair. Both government and opposition leaders must be given equal opportunity to appear in mainstream media,” adds Mohd Azizuddin.
In July, Singapore underwent its first pandemic polls which relied heavily on online campaigns as physical rallies and mass gatherings were banned.
The city-state was able to do this due to its fully urban population. Malaysia, being much larger with many rural constituencies and limited connectivity, would face more challenges emulating that model.
South Korea, which has never postponed general elections even during the Korean War in 1952, also held its general elections successfully in April.
Instead of mass rallies, candidates in masks delivered speech to small groups.
Extensive sanitisation took place before voters could enter polling stations. Masks, gloves, temperature checks and hand sanitisers were required.
Strict enforcement of SOPs was carried out. Separate polling stations were set up outside hospitals for Covid-positive patients, who were also allowed to vote by mail while those under self-quarantine could cast their ballot after other voters left polling stations at 6pm.
Remarkably, South Korea recorded its highest voter turnout in 16 years at 66%.
Alternative measures
If the situation worsens and Malaysia will have to undergo another state or general election in the midst of the pandemic, do we have other means of voting without being physically present at the ballot box?
Mohd Azizuddin doubts that Malaysia will be able to conduct fully online voting at this moment. Even developed countries like Germany and Japan still prefer physical voting, he says.
“In the United States where there are semi-computerised voting systems there have been flaws like what happened in Florida in 2000 which wrongly declared a win for George Bush when it should have gone to Al Gore.
“Many do not feel secure with online voting. If you observe the recent PKR election, there was chaos with online voting. This means we are not yet ready for it,” he says.
“We do not have the facilities or infrastructure to accommodate that kind of online voting and it has never been tried before.
“But postal voting might be a possibility with the right agencies, like Pos Malaysia, but they will have to be prepared to manage something as large as the general elections,” he says.
A nationwide postal voting system will require immense preparation and coordination.
The best option, according to Mohd Azizuddin, will be traditional voting, but with very, very strict regulations and restrictions on face-to-face campaigning. Most importantly, we need stern enforcement.
Voting rules: With strict SOPs, in-person voting is still the best election mode for Malaysia.
IT is important to take into account the Malaysian context, culture and election behaviour when formulating Covid-19 Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) and guidelines if Malaysia is to face more elections in the near future.
Even though some overseas experts have said that the Covid-19 health risk of casting an in-person ballot with all the precautions is relatively low, but in our setting, the risk of transmission is “tremendous” as we do election and political campaigns differently here, says public health specialist Associate Professor Dr Wan Mohd Zahiruddin Wan Mohammad.
Noting the “success” of the Chini by-election as there was no recorded Covid-19 cluster emerging from it despite the high voter turnout, Dr Wan Mohd Zahiruddin, who is from Universiti Sains Malaysia’s School of Medical Sciences, explains how it was a different story for the Sabah polls due to its scale and wider movement of people during and after the election.
“Even though comprehensive SOPs by the Election Commission (EC) were in place, the authorities might not have been able to enforce them all and people might have not fully complied to them in most places and at most of the times due to the larger areas and number of constituencies in a state election, especially during physical face to face campaigns,” he says.
Another possible factor was timing – the state election was conducted in the midst of Covid-19 clusters in Sabah which perhaps have favoured community spread even more.
“And importantly due to the possible spread by those returnees from Sabah to other states in Malaysia who might have been in contact with the carriers of the virus.
“To have another state or even the possibility of a snap general election to be conducted during this current phase of Covid-19 that we are facing now is worrying and best to be avoided or postponed until the situation is wellcontrolled and the country is declared in a safe phase,” he says.
Strict enforcement of SOPs
Dr Wan Mohd Zahiruddin emphasises that if an election cannot be postponed, all SOPs must be revisited and strengthened.
The SOPs must also be strictly complied by and adequately enforced to all EC staff, stakeholders, voters and importantly, political leaders and their supporters, says Dr Wan Mohd Zahiruddin.
“People must be convinced and they should perceive less risk so that they are able to turn up at the polling stations with optimum numbers to cast their votes,” he says.
This means the EC will have to to come up with more adaptable measures and directives to reduce the numbers of people interacting with others and the duration of the interactions.
He suggests that the National Security Council (MKN) or Health Ministry establish prompt and clear directives on testing and quarantine procedures related to the election activities for EC staff, voters, politicians and supporters.
“We need to take things step by step based on the existing pandemic situation,” he says, adding that crucially, the people should not be put in an awkward situation of choosing between their health and exercising their right to vote.
Avoid unnecessary risks
Dr Khayriyyah Mohd Hanafiah, a researcher in epidemiology and control of infectious disease, cautions against doing anything that would bring large groups of people together, especially if it is within confined areas and for a lengthy duration.
“We know now that Covid-19 is an over-dispersed pathogen, which means the epidemic isn’t sustained by each person getting infected passing it to another three people, but it is sustained by bouts of super spreader events – where you have large clusters arising from a few infected people,” says Khayriyyah, who is senior lecturer in Medical Microbiology at USM.
She explains that this type of spreading is more likely to happen when you provide opportunities for either large groups of people to come together, but especially when you bring people from different areas because then they will go back to where they came from and possibly spread it to one or more people.
“That then complicates efforts to do contact tracing, ensuring contacts adhere to quarantine until they are confirmed to not have the virus,” she says.
Even if there was not a significant outbreak, we have to think about the frontliners and people who will be tasked with dealing with the aftermath of such events and the burdens we place on them to control any possible outbreaks.
Khayriyyah adds that SOPs are meant to help minimise some necessary risks, but not all SOPs are equally effective at minimising risk, and most of them rely on effective enforcement.
“Scientifically, some of the precautions have more evidence of effectiveness than others – for example, proper mask wearing when you are in the presence of others in a confined area – which becomes inevitable at some point because people need to go to work with others, travel or buy things at shops – is known to significant
ly reduce transmission. For things like temperature checks,there is less evidence that it actually works because the instrument you use is highly dependent on calibration and how it is used, and also infected people can spread the virus even before showing any symptoms (unlike SARS), and people having fever can bring it down with paracetamol,” she explains.
“And so however many SOPs you can come up with, I would first caution against taking unnecessary risks in creating situations that require strict enforcement of SOPs to begin with.”
A balancing act
As Covid-19 will be with us for several years, it is important that we balance public health with other important rights like voting, education and leisure.
However, physician and health policies specialist Dr Khor Swee Kheng stresses that for us to exercise our voting rights safely, Malaysian politicians must learn to campaign in the new normal, and judging from the Sabah state election, some might still have a long way to go.
While Dr Khor acknowledges that several other countries had safe national elections during Covid-19, like South Korea or Singapore, these were done under highly disciplined conditions.
However, although it is conceptually and practically safe for pandemic elections to take place, Dr Khor believes strongly that Malaysia should wait until we have beaten this new wave of Covid-19 and politicians can campaign in safe ways.
Noting that elections are unavoidable in some situations, Dr Khor nevertheless says that there should be “no unnecessary elections until we can campaign responsibly.”
Pointing out that other countries have built up their abilities to conduct voting without being physically present, such as postal voting or proxy voting, Dr Khor suggests that these alternatives can be explored by the EC to determine feasibility and appropriateness for Malaysia’s context. However, he concedes that laws and regulations will need to be revised for this to happen.