Down to race once again
Malaysia just cannot seem to move away from the same old tired election routine.
WE can’t avoid talking about race when we talk about the upcoming Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB) by-election.
I’ve noticed any conversation about the polls, for which campaigning started yesterday, is mainly about the candidates’ races. It is not about issues and policies.
“If DAP puts in a Chinese candidate, it can win the Chinese votes but not the Malay votes. If DAP puts in a Malay candidate, there is no guarantee it will win over the Malays. There is talk that it will put up an Indian to win over the Indians,” a political analyst told me a few days before yesterday’s nomination day..
“Gerakan should be allowed to put up a Chinese candidate. This will show that Perikatan is not a coalition based only on Malays.
“But if Perikatan plays the race card, it will field a Bersatu or PAS candidate named Malay. On the ground, what we are hearing is that the Malays want a Malay candidate,” said the analyst.
Race does matter in the KKB by-election.
About 50% of the voters are Malays, 30% Chinese, and 18% Indians.
DAP’S Lee Kee Hiong of Pakatan Harapan defeated Gerakan’s Teoh Kien Hong of Perikatan Nasional by a 4,119vote majority in last year’s Selangor state election. The seat fell vacant after Lee’s death this March from cancer.
The political analyst noted that Lee received the bulk of the Chinese votes while Teoh got sizable support from the Malays.
“A Chinese candidate from Gerakan was supported by the Malays who backed Bersatu and PAS. This shows high voter transferability,” he said.
It is a four-cornered fight for the KKB by-election.
All eyes are on DAP’S Pang Sock Tao, who represents Pakatan, and Bersatu’s Khairul
Azhari Saut, who is on the Perikatan ticket. Hafizah Zainuddin from Parti Rakyat Malaysia and independent Nyau Ke Xin are also contesting in the polls set for May 11.
The racial mathematics of the by-election goes something like this:
According to the political analyst, the inevitable will happen if more than 70% of the Malay voters support the Perikatan candidate and not all Chinese voters back Pakatan. Perikatan will win the seat and prove it has a grip on Malay votes.
This will also be another nail in the coffin of Umno, which used to dominate the 3Rs (race, religion and royalty) issues.
Except for the “stellar” performance
of Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh over the KK Super Mart socks controversy, the party that used to be known as the champion of Malays is a shadow of itself. It is now in bed with its traditional racial bogeyman, DAP.
Can Umno galvanise the Malays enough to support a non-malay DAP candidate? Will there be voter transferability of Umno supporters to a DAP candidate?
Despite their grievances about unfulfilled promises and hopes for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s government, the political analyst said the feedback on the ground is that the Chinese will still support DAP.
“They may be angry with Anwar but can separate Anwar’s government from DAP. For them, it is not DAP’S fault. Also, they have no choice. Either they vote for DAP or don’t vote at all,” he said.
The analyst said the Chinese who have given up on DAP will not go out to vote, which could reduce the party’s chances of retaining the seat.
Perikatan has bet that a Malay candidate from Bersatu and not a Chinese one from Gerakan can get the bulk of the community’s votes.
“It looks like Perikatan has given up on the Chinese. They don’t want to place a Gerakan candidate with the hope that the Chinese will vote for a politician from their community,” the political analyst said.
“Perikatan’s short-term goal is to win KKB with cold, calculated racial maths. But in the long term, if it had been interested in getting Chinese votes in the next general elections, it should have allowed Gerakan to contest. This would have shown the Chinese that Perikatan is not all about the Malays.”
If things were to even out -just say Perikatan wins enough Malay votes and Pakatan gets enough Malay and Chinese votes for the result to be technically tied -- then the kingmaker will be the Indians.
“Which candidate or party will the Indians vote for?” I asked the political analyst a few days before yesterday’s nomination day.
“Too early for my team to get a feel. We will know after a few days of campaigning,” he said.
I have a feeling that the KKB by-election is a Malay vs Chinese fight, with the Indians in the middle.