Economists upgrade S’pore growth outlook

> Survey shows median forecast of 2.3% rise in GDP for 2017 on brighter picture for manufacturing and exports

SINGAPORE: Economists raised their forecasts for Singapore’s growth this year as they upgraded their views on the manufacturing sector and exports, a central bank survey showed yesterday.

The median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) was for gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 2.3% in 2017, up from the 1.5% estimated in the previous survey published in December.

That would mark a slight pick-up from 2% growth recorded in 2016, and would be in the upper half of the government’s official 2017 GDP forecast range of 1-3%.

Economists now expect the manufacturing sector to expand 4.5% in 2017, up from 1.1% in the December survey.

Non-oil domestic exports are expected to grow 6.1% in 2017, up from the previous median forecast of 0.3% growth.

The median forecast for year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter was 2.6%, up from 1.3% previously. But that would be slightly slower than the fourth quarter of last year, when GDP expanded 2.9% from a year earlier.

Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew 12.3% on an annualised basis in the October-December quarter.

The central bank’s core inflation gauge was seen likely to rise 1.5% for the whole of 2017, up from the previous median forecast of 1.3%.

According to the latest MAS survey, economists’ median forecast for all-items CPI inflation in 2017 was unchanged at 1%.

Economists estimated that the Singapore dollar will trade at 1.4600 against the US dollar by end-2017. It was trading near 1.4145 yesterday.

Singapore’s advance estimate of first quarter GDP and the central bank’s twiceyearly monetary policy decision, are both expected to be released in mid-April.

Most economists expect the MAS to keep policy unchanged, after growth picked up late last year, while inflationary pressures are seen likely to remain relatively subdued. – Reuters