Coalition risks disintegration, say analysts

POLITICAL analysts say Barisan Nasional (BN), the 13-member coalition that is now effectively left with three parties – Umno, MCA and MIC – faces disintegration if Umno cannot move away from race-based politics.

They said the Umno elections will provide an indication of what is in store for BN. If the delegates are unable to pick a leader who can galvanise the party to carry out a “total reform”, more Umno members may quit to join Pakatan Harapan component parties, making BN irrelevant, they explained.

Datuk Cheah See Kian, a political commentator in the Chinese media, told the daily that MCA, Gerakan and MIC, which performed poorly in the last general election, were probably dragged down by Umno’s dabbling in race-based politics.

As such, he feared more Umno MPs will jump ship if Umno cannot pick a leader who can make the party more inclusive, which it once was, China Press reported yesterday.

“Umno’s top leadership plays a vital role. If it cannot effect a total reform, party members may lose faith in the party’s struggle and start to quit en masse, a situation that will precipitate the disintegration of BN.”

On the other hand, if the new leadership is determined to reform and return BN to where it started off – a platform to fight for all irrespective of race, creed and religion – the people may throw their support behind BN again in the next general election.

Another political analyst, Tang Ah Chai, said BN as a whole has to undergo a total reform “lest it becomes irrelevant as its existence will become meaningless”.