Economists raise China’s 2018 GDP growth outlook

BEIJING: Analysts have raised their 2018 growth forecasts for China’s economy, a surprising result given an escalating trade war with the US, as they see a deleveraging drive and pollution crackdown having less of an impact than initially expected.

A Reuters poll of 76 economists now predict gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the world’s second-biggest economy at 6.6% this year, compared with an April pick for 6.5% expansion, with the latest forecasts ranging from 6.3% to 6.9%.

That would be a slowdown from 6.9% last year but easily within the government’s target of around 6.5%.

Since the last poll, China reported betterthan-expected first quarter growth of 6.8%, as the property market held up despite restrictions on home purchases in many cities and consumer demand was strong.

Economists expect broad momentum to ease, albeit at a gradual pace, over the rest of the year, with second quarter growth forecast at 6.7%, third quarter at 6.6% and 6.5% in the fourth quarter.

China will publish its second-quarter GDP and June activity data on Monday.