ISurvey: Just over half rate government’s performance favourably, PN gains four points

The embattled Labour Party continues to enjoy positive approval ratings by the majority of respondents according to this seventh edition of the iSurvey, just weeks before Malta and Gozo head to the voting stations and make their choice.

This is despite daily developments on allegations that the Prime Minister and his wife are involved in the infamous Egrant Inc, the third company named in the Panama Papers scandal in connection with that of minister without portfolio Konrad Mizzi and the PM’s chief of staff Keith Schembri.

Dr Muscat denies any and all wrongdoing, and is ‘confident’ all investigations will clear his name.

Respondents were asked two distinct questions: How do you rate the Government’s performance? How would you rate the performance of the Nationalist Party in Opposition? These particular questions were not open ended, with possible replies being ‘positive’, ‘negative’ and ‘don’t knows’.

Overall, when rating this PL government’s performance, 52.8% gave a positive rating, 38% gave a negative rating and 9.2% said they ‘don’t know’.

The PN received overall approval ratings of 37.1%, negative ratings of 48.7% and 14.2% said ‘don’t know’.

Approval ratings for this PL government have dipped marginally by 1.6 percentage points between November 2016 and now, from 54.4% to 52.8%.

Respondents were contacted for their replies between 25 April and 3 May, in the midst of the allegations about the Muscat family, a US$1.017 million bank transfer from the Azerbaijan and a Magisterial inquiry into the matter.

The election was also called on 1 May.

It could therefore be said that the very serious allegations about Dr Muscat and his family appear to have only made a minor dent in the Government’s overall approval ratings.

That being said, the proportion of respondents who view the Government’s performance negatively has shot up in six months by 7.6 percentage points, from 30.4% in November 2016 to 38% now.

While this may appear to be misleading, the big impact – much like will be the case in the upcoming election – is with the ‘don’t knows’.

In November 2016, 15.2% said they ‘don’t know’ whether they view the Government’s performance positively or not, while this number fell to 9.2% now – a dip of 6 percentage points.

The majority of the proportion of those who were undecided and are now able to give an opinion has therefore gone to the negative rating.

It is of interest to note that the overall approval ratings for the government are still higher today, in the wake of all these allegations, than they were in April 2016 when the Panama Papers scandal, implicating Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri, had just broken (approval of 40.8% in April 2016 to 54.4% in November 2016, down to 52,8% now).

The Nationalist Party have made some grounds in terms of its approval, having gained 3.4 percentage points between the November 2016 iSurvey and now (from 33.7% to 37.1%).

The PN have called for the Prime Minister’s resignation in the wake of the Magisterial inquiry that is investigating the claims described by blogger Daphne Caruana Galizia and the whistleblower.

In the light of this, one might have expected the overall party ratings to have jumped, however its image of being an overly-negative party and failing to come up with its own genuine proposals has definitely left an impact in the mind of the electorate.

Oddly enough, while the PN’s approval ratings have gone up, its disapproval ratings have also gone up by 3.3 percentage points, from 45.4% in November to 48.7% now.

Like with the case of the Government’s approval ratings, the major difference came from the proportion of ‘don’t knows’, which stood at 20.8% in November and plunged to 10.6% now. In line with The Malta Independent’s coverage of ‘issues of most concern’ published on Friday, there was also a significant drop in the ‘don’t know’s’, pointing towards a more decisive nation than ever before.

Interestingly, when breaking down responses based on how people voted in the 2013 general election, it was found that PN voters view the Government’s performance more favourably than PL voters view the Opposition’s performance.

Based on the way people voted in 2013:

PN voters gave the Government a positive rating of 14.6%, a negative rating of 72.5% and 13% said they ‘don’t know’.

PL voters gave the Opposition a positive rating of 11.5%, a negative rating of 76.9% and 11.7% said they ‘don’t know’.

It can also be said that PL voters view their party more favourable than PN voters view their respective party.

PN voters gave the Opposition an approval rating of 69.4%, a negative rating of 14.1% and 16.5% said they ‘don’t know’.

PL voters gave the PL in government an approval rating of 84.3%, a negative rating of 9.8% and 6% said they ‘don’t know’.

The proportion of PL voters who view the government unfavourably between November and now only went up by 0.7 percentage points.

The April 2017 iSurvey - the seventh of its kind - was commissioned to Business Leaders Malta on behalf of The Malta Independent.

A total of 600 respondents were used, representative of age, gender and spread of localities.

With such a sample size, the margin of error is +/- 4%.

More info on the iSurvey will be disclosed throughout the week.