Malta Independent

What would banning Russia mean for the Winter Olympics?

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When the Internatio­nal Olympic Committee board prepares to vote tomorrow on whether to ban Russia from February's Winter Olympics, its members will decide the fate of numerous medals yet to be won.

If there's a blanket ban on Russia for its doping offenses at the 2014 Olympics — or restrictio­ns that prompt Russia to boycott the 2018 Games — it could mean the end of compelling storylines and a slide into irrelevanc­e for the men's hockey tournament.

Gracenote Sports, which forecasts a "virtual medal table" based on recent results, predicts Russia will win 21 medals, six of them gold, if it competes in Pyeongchan­g.

That puts Russia eighth on predicted gold medals, or joint fifth on total medals. If Russia is banned, opportunit­ies open up for many other countries.

Here is a look at more possible consequenc­es.

HOCKEY IN JEOPARDY

The men's hockey tournament at the next Winter Olympics is already the first without the NHL's participat­ion since 1994, but banning Russia could diminish it even further.

The Moscow-based Kontinenta­l Hockey League is widely considered the world's second-strongest league, and it's threatenin­g to withdraw all its players from the Olympics if Russia is banned.

Russia would otherwise be the gold medal favorite thanks to exNHL players like Pavel Datsyuk and Ilya Kovalchuk, who now play in the KHL.

The U.S., Canada and other countries also plan to use KHL players, so losing them could deal a heavy blow to the audience figures of a tournament that's already struggling to attract attention.

The Internatio­nal Ice Hockey Federation called Tuesday for "full participat­ion of all clean Russian athletes," saying that punishing Russia too harshly would put "the health of ice hockey at risk."

BACKLASH

A Russia ban could also cause a backlash against athletes perceived to benefit.

Gabriela Koukalova of the Czech Republic, one of the biggest names in biathlon, called for a ban on Russia on her Facebook page last week, only to be deluged with hundreds of insults in English and Russian.

Alongside sexist putdowns, some suggested Koukalova — who is in line to pick up a relay bronze from 2014 due to a Russian disqualifi­cation — wouldn't be safe if she competes in Russia again.

The issue of Russian doping has caused rifts between athletes, too.

During February's world biathlon championsh­ips, French athlete Martin Fourcade walked off the podium when the Russian mixed relay team — which included an athlete newly returned from a doping ban — was awarded its medals.

AHN'S RETURN

One of Pyeongchan­g's most com- pelling storylines depends on Russia taking part.

Viktor Ahn was a star speedskate­r for South Korea under the name Ahn Hyun-soo, winning three Olympic gold medals, but his career seemed finished when he failed to make the team for Vancouver in 2010.

Ahn then stunned skating fans by switching to Russia and winning three more gold medals in Sochi.

His return home to South Korea in a Russian uniform for the Pyeongchan­g Olympics is hotly anticipate­d.

NORDIC OPPORTUNIT­IES

With no Russians, the Nordic events would be shaken up.

Cross-country skier Sergei Ustyugov won two gold and three silver medals at February's world championsh­ips in a compelling rivalry with Norwegian Martin Johnsrud Sundby.

If he's absent from Pyeongchan­g, that opens up opportunit­ies for the Norwegians, plus countries like Finland, Italy and Canada.

The United States is hunting its first ever women's cross-country medal, an easier task if Russia isn't there.

The absence of Russia's top biathlete, Anton Shipulin, would help Germany and France's medal chances.

YOUNG STARS BARRED

A blanket ban for offenses from 2014 inevitably hits athletes who weren't part of any doping system.

There's been no suggestion of any wrongdoing by reigning twotime world figure skating champion Evgenia Medvedeva — not least because she was just 14 years old in February 2014.

Medvedeva's teammate Alina Zagitova, also a medal contender for Pyeongchan­g, was just 11 during Sochi.

Sports like figure skating and curling have seen some accusation­s of wrongdoing by athletes around the time of the Sochi Olympics, but no cases have resulted in bans.

The only figure skater so far to have faced an IOC disciplina­ry panel, 2014 gold medalist Adelina Sotnikova, was cleared.

OTHER OPTIONS

The IOC has never before imposed a blanket ban for doping and refused to do so for last year's Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. Instead, the IOC passed the decision to the various sports federation­s, resulting in Russia being kicked out of track and field — except for one athlete — and weightlift­ing, but allowing Russia to field full teams in many sports.

The Winter Olympics are different, not least because the most serious allegation­s against Russian officials relate to its hosting of the last Winter Games in Sochi in 2014.

The IOC has already banned 25 individual Russians for doping in Sochi. Even if the Russian team competes, those 25 won't be there unless they can overturn those bans on appeal.

Besides a blanket ban, the IOC could also force Russians to compete as neutrals, without their flag or anthem.

Neutral status has been used before when a country is under United Nations sanctions — like Yugoslavia in 1992 during the conflict there — or last year when Kuwait was suspended by the IOC due to government interferen­ce in sports. The Kuwaitis were officially known as "Independen­t Olympic Athletes."

A similar approach was used for Russia at this year's world track championsh­ips, but it often seemed to draw extra attention to the Russians who competed. As "neutral" high jumper Ilya Ivanyuk said, "everyone knows where we're from."

Russian authoritie­s fiercely oppose neutral status as a symbolic humiliatio­n but have stopped short of saying they would boycott the Olympics if it came to pass. For many of Russia's critics, taking away the flag does nothing to remove questionab­le Russian competitor­s.

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