Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 2016: Now available

In the summer of 2016, suddenly, there are new uncertainties concerning the global economy, not the least of which is the British referendum in which a majority voted to exit the European Union. This raises questions about the short- and long-term outlooks for Britain, the future of the Eurozone, and the future of globalization and economic integration. In this issue of the Global Economic Outlook, the team of global economists offer their views on the United Kingdom, Eurozone, United States, China, Japan, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, India, and the economic implications of oil price fluctuations. • This issue begins with Ian Stewart’s assessment of the potential impact of the British referendum. Ian explains the various possible scenarios that might take place, noting that the uncertainty itself is likely to have a negative impact on the economy. • Next, Alexander Börsch looks at the Eurozone. He notes that economic growth has accelerated recently, with real GDP up 0.6 percent in the first quarter. • In the article on the US economy, Patricia Buckley says that, although she continues to believe the United States will have moderate growth in 2016, “downside risk has definitely increased.” • In his article on China’s economy, Ira Kalish discusses the latest data indicating that the economy continues to decelerate, led by weaker exports and weaker investment. • In his article on the Japanese economy, Akrur Barua offers an interesting view on the relationship between monetary policy and the large amount of debt issued by the central government. • Akrur Barua also wrote this quarter’s article on Brazil. Akrur says that, while the economy remained in recession in the first quarter, there are signs that the worst is over. • In the next article, Danny Bachman offers his thoughts on the Mexican economy. He notes that, despite implementing many favourable policies, growth remains low compared with other big emerging markets. • South Africa faces considerable headwinds, according to our next article by Lester Gunnion. Real GDP fell in the first quarter. • In her article on India, Rumki Majumdar notes that India’s economic performance has been reasonably good, assisted by low commodity prices and better governance. • In the last article, Rumki Majumdar looks at the global oil market. Specifically, she reviews the history of the last 50 years of oil price movements and provides thoughts on the factors that tend to drive prices. The Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 2016 may be downloaded from http://www.deloitte.com/ mt/geo.