Three months away

We are just over three months away from the European Parliament election. Malta is never far from being in election mode. The main political parties make sure that politics is rammed down our throats, day in day out. There are brief moments of respite over the Christmas period and, soon, when Easter is celebrated, but we are always quickly back on the road of finger-pointing and weare-better-than-you politics.

The full line-up of the candidates who will be contesting the EP election is almost complete. Bar any surprise last-minute additions, the main political parties know who will be representing them on the ballot sheet on 8 June.

This is also the case when it comes to local council elections, which will be held concurrently. In this case, political parties are finding it harder to find candidates who are willing to enter the fray. Local councils have lost much of their appeal, largely because over the past decade the government has taken back most of their powers, and councils today are mere administrators with little power, if any at all.

There is so much at stake in both elections, as the outcome will set the tempo for the second half of the legislature, which will lead to the national poll in 2027.

With regard to the EP election, all eyes will be on who will be winning the sixth seat – Labour are sure to win three, the PN are set to win two, and the last seat available is likely to be a tough contest, and largely depends on how votes are transferred from one candidate to another. There is a slight possibility of an intrusion of an independent candidate or one from the smaller parties, but this seems to be a rather far-fetched scenario in the grand scheme of things.

A 3-3 will give a boost to the Nationalist Party and be a letdown for Labour. The PN has already made it clear that its target is to get a third seat in the EP. On the other hand, a 4-2 score will be yet another confirmation of Labour’s power although, it must be said, one will also be on the lookout on the gap that the parties will have between each other. If the PN is seen to have made inroads in Labour’s vote advantage, then this will have its repercussions too.

The same goes for local councils. Over the years, the PN has lost localities where it was traditionally strong. Its target, in this case, is to win these localities back.

Of great importance is the number of people who will choose not to exercise their right to vote. In the last general election, this dropped to 85 percent, the lowest in more than half a century. In terms of EP elections, voter turnout normally hovers around 70 per cent, but polls have repeatedly shown that the percentage is likely to be closer to 60 than to 70.

That, in itself, is also a message.