The campaign: take one

As I watched the big Labour mass meeting at Castille on Monday, I could not help noticing some changes: there was not a single EU flag to be seen and many in the crowd had reverted to the red Labour flags and banners which had been all but banned in the 2

Those were different days then: the party had consciously taken a back seat and the Moviment was all the rage. Gone were the battle cries of the past, the red flags and so on, and white predominated.

This time round it was as if 2013 had been erased and the party core and grassroots had re-established themselves. Of course, one should not read too much into this, but did this change mean the party feels it does not need to demean itself to include what was called the Moviment and, by others, the Switchers?

It is then ironic that just as the party in government is in the midst of the Maltese Presidency of the European Council, there was not a single EU flag in that crowd. It was as if the 2003 referendum did not happen at all.

This time round, it seemed Labour did not need any crutches, it sufficed by itself. It certainly was enough to overfill Castille Square and half the road leading up to it. The cumulative impact of that crowd served as a fitting backdrop to the announcement of the early election.

These are the days of crowd comparisons as supporters of both parties pore over the next day’s papers to see who had the bigger crowd. Although PN had a great crowd at St Julian’s, it cannot be compared to the crowd at Castille Square.

That fact, the sudden announcement of the election, the smooth Labour machine swinging into action right from that moment, the polls announcing Labour is still ahead (though its lead is narrowing), the comparison between the crowds on Monday – all contributed to ela- tion in the Labour ranks and a certain despondency among the Nationalist grassroots.

Obviously, there are four weeks to go before Election Day and the distances between the two parties are not unbridgeable.

The impression from the first week seems to have been that Labour has reverted to its grassroots, its DNA, its time-tested formula.

And on the other side? What about PN? PN has its own DNA, its history, the people who support it through thick and thin. You will find these people in the party’s media, around the MPs and the candidates.

Maltese political history has been, since World War II, the rivalry between these two great mass forces. They agree on most issues but there is this great divide between them that comes to the fore at election time.

The two parties have a rock base of core supporters – let’s say some 30 per cent of the electorate on each side. In between, there are the undecided, say less than 40 per cent and it is the way these bend that decides the election.

Crowds are big and impressive and so is turnout, but at the end of the day what decides are the non-core voters and which way they swing.

Crowds and polls apart, these are still early days for the noncommitted. Maybe the trendline will hold until 3 June or maybe something will happen and opinions change.

Crowd psychology plays a huge part here.

You could feel the Castille crowd’s anger at the attacks on the Prime Minister and his family as much as you could feel the Spinola crowd’s anger at Joseph Muscat. But what how do the uncommitted feel?

One indication is the almost full employment, no austerity measures these past four years, healthy public finances – all these and more predispose people to be wary of rocking the boat.

On the other hand, people, generally speaking, have been shocked by revelations of secret accounts in shady countries and by the defence of the people implicated in these scandals by the top levels of government.

What the government claims kick-started the growth cycle of the past four years – the cuts in electricity rates – did give people a breathing space in the daily grind of work and expenditure but nothing more than that. In fact, Labour is now promising further tax cuts to ease the daily burden even more. But for the most part – and that refers not just to the vast majority of the Castille crowd but also to Maltese taxpayers in general – there has not been any significant upward movement in living standards, whatever the government may say.

On the other hand, I feel that people, generally speaking, have indeed been shocked by the Panama Papers revelations and by this Egrant/Pilatus Bank business but some have been more shocked to see the Leader of the Opposition wade into this personally and at huge risk to himself. Nor do many feel it is the duty of an incoming prime minister to become head prosecutor and speak of sending his opponent to jail. I know Donald Trump did that and spoke during the campaign of sending Hillary Clinton to jail but I