Buona fine or prologo?

After a turbulent period of well over 80 days, during which the Italian political scene was more reminiscent of a roller-coaster than a steady ship of state sailing in calm waters, on Friday we witnessed the swearing-in of the so-called ‘gialloverde’ coal

Attempts at forming a viable coalition were not easy. Pre electoral alliances were dissolved. What seemed improbable, or shall I say impossible, before the election, following unending negotiations, became feasible. There were threats of a ‘March on Rome’ as well as calls for ‘Impeachment of the President’, led mostly by Matteo Salvini, who whichever way one looks at the evolving political scene, emerges as the outright winner.

President Sergio Mattarella stood his ground in refusing the nomination of anti eurozone economist Paolo Savona to the new government, and was about to form a technocratic government, with new elections in the not too distant future.

The new leaders of the coalition, Salvini and Di Maio, eventually agreed to give Economist Paolo Savona the European Union portfolio, and reserve the Economy and the Finance portfolios to others who have been less vocal against the euro, the eurozone, and Italy’s European Union membership.

The new coalition of the most populist Italian government ever, begs certain questions to clarify what policies will be followed now that these parties are in government. During the campaign there was a lot of talk about exiting the euro, going softer on sanctions against Russia, being more sympathetic to Mr. Putin, taking a much harsher stand against immigrants, and even talk of the possibility of a future referendum to leave the European Union.

President Sergio Mattarella’s stand against nominating eurosceptic, and anti eurozone Paolo Savona, was not personal. President Mattarella was aware that exiting the euro would have brought about damage to the country’s finances, and created economic instability in the EU. With the resultant uncertainty in the country’s finances, President Mattarella could foresee difficulties in selling of government bonds, and hence, Italy being one of Europe’s indebted countries, possibly having to resort to being rescued by the EU, as happened in the case of Greece, with all the resultant suffering of the population.

Following the formation of the coalition, many of the populist promises are being toned down. One hopes that the responsibility of governing tempers to a certain extent the campaign promises and slogans, that admittedly proved effective vote catchers, but will spell disaster in the medium to long term if applied as promised.

I am confident that Presidente del Consiglio Giuseppe Conte and his 18 member cabinet, loyal to the oath of allegiance to the Constitution and the laws of the land, which they took on their appointment to form a Cabinet, will steer wisely between electoral slogans, and measures and decisions, that are in the best interests of the country, always taking into consideration the developing situation in Italy, as well as in the European Union.

As one of Italy’s closest neighbours, we do have our qualms as to how we would be affected, were certain measures to be taken by the incoming Italian government.

Our bilateral commercial relations are stronger than ever, and any financial or economic instability created on Italian soil, as a result of measures taken by the Italian Government, would have immediate disastrous consequences on our bilateral trade and economy as well, be it exiting the eurozone (which for now is shelved), recourse to some sort of bail-out as happened in Greece, unemployment, etc. We would also experience indirect effects through the instability such a situation would bring about in the European internal market.

In this sector, thankfully, we have been pleasantly reassured by the emerging statements from the new coalition, that they will do all they can not to rock the boat.

This is hopefully the ‘buona fine’ to the 88 days of political turbulence and horse trading that followed the elections in March.

My other major concern is about the effect the new government’s policy on migration could have on our country. The new Italian Ministry of the Interior has been allotted to Lega leader, and now Vice Presidente del Consiglio Matteo Salvini. He has repeatedly emphasised that he will apply a sweeping crackdown on illegal immigrants in Italy, and pledged to diminish spending on maintaining immigrants in Italy. An anti-immigrant policy has been the battle cry of the Lega’s populist policy since its inception as a North Italian separatist movement, with little or no love lost for Italians from the South, and even less for immigrants.

It is fair to say that migration flows across the Mediterranean have diminished markedly, due to measures being taken to stop migrants entering Libya from the south, including monetary compensation to return to one’s country of origin. The training of, and cooperation with, the Libyan Naval Forces has led to large numbers of migrants being detected on leaving Libyan shores, and made to turn back and not cross the Mediterranean. Such measures, though legally and morally debateable, have reduced numbers drastically.

However, even with these reduced numbers, were Italy to change its present policies, and clamp down on accepting all rescued migrants, or those that make it to Italian shores, there is no arguing the fact that we will be faced again by an immigration challenge as we experienced in the past, albeit on a smaller scale.

This could well be the ‘prologo’ of a new situation that might well develop.

I have full confidence in the competence of diplomats and politicians from both sides to avoid such situations and to find bilaterally acceptable solutions to any emerging problems, working together in the traditional friendship and camaraderie that has characterised the long-standing traditional good, solid, friendly relations between our two countries.