Brexit and the Irish border issue

A week is a long day in politics. This phrase, is attributed to a British Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, and was recorded around 1964. It was said due to the fastchanging pace of the political landscape, the fortunes of a politician or political group can

In terms of Brexit, this week, was a very long one for Theresa May and the British Government and so are the weeks to come. The Salzburg informal meeting proved to be a tough case and never the two parts around the table have been so far. The two main issues remain the access to the single market and the Northern Ireland Border.

Why is the issue of the border between the UK and Ireland such an important factor in the Brexit negotiations when it was barely, if at all addressed prior to the referendum? John Major, the former UK Prime Minister, may in fact have been the first, back in March 2017, to raise the first concerns saying “uncertainties over border restrictions between Ulster and the Republic are a serious threat – to the UK, to the peace process, and for Ireland, North and South” pointing out to a potential return to armed conflict should the negotiation process not be addressed with the required sensitivity. Furthermore, this border is for the EU the only land border with the UK and as such raises several security and economic considerations.

While both sides agree that the solution is not having a hard border where physical checks are reinstated, there is disagreement on how this can be done and the issue of this Irish border risks breaking down Brexit negotiations and leading to a no deal conclusion. The solution to this should be a “backstop” agreement that would, as recognised by Theresa May in her letter to Donald Tusk of 19 March 2018, avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, protect the Good Friday Agreement and safeguard the integrity of the single market, customs union and common commercial policy. Then, giving the willingness of both sides, why is an agreement so elusive? Fundamentally, because the interpretation of this backstop agreement is essentially divergent for both sides. Criticism has in fact been directed to either side with the UK being accused of over-dramatizing the situation and the EU not being sensitive to the UK’s sovereignty and the EU’s proposals threatening the UK’s constitutional integrity.

At the core of the debate lies the customs union and the view of the UK that Brexit implies a clear cut exit from it, while the EU sees the maintenance of the customs union as the only solution to the Irish border issue, suggesting that the customs union is to continue to apply between North and South Ireland after March 2019.

The UK proposal made back in March runs onto two alternative routes. The first is that of creating a customs partnership between the EU and the UK whereby goods entering the UK but destined to the EU would be subject to EU tariffs collected by the UK on its behalf while products for the UK market would be subject to the UK’s own tariff system. The second option would be a customs arrangement wherein administrative and technological measures would ensure that trade with the EU would operate without any undue obstacles and that certain ad hoc measures would be applied taking account of the special circumstances of Northern Ireland. Both alternatives have been however rejected by the EU as unworkable and as presenting an unwanted precedent.

Meanwhile, while both the EU and the UK acknowledge the need for a decision to be reached, the Irish PM, Leo Vardkar, has recently been quoted as saying that in the past six months no progress has been made towards an agreement, reiterating the importance of the UK to be flexible and make proposals that are acceptable to the EU. This position was also voiced by the EU’s Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier who insisted that while the EU is willing to improve the EU’s proposals it would not accept the UK’s ideas of compromise.

What are we to expect in future? It is difficult to say what the outcome will be. Donald Tusk has hinted at the continuing looming possibility of a no deal. Theresa May continues to be in the midst of a political crisis and is giving no consideration to proposals being made back home to address the Irish Border. This further highlights the current deadlock. In the meantime, the EU is reworking its proposal reported by the FT as requiring UK-wide “full alignment” single market rules and regulations for trade in goods, alongside a new customs arrangement between the UK and EU. The only certainty appears to be that if the UK wants a withdrawal agreement at all it will have to first sign a backstop agreement ensuring that following the EU/UK breakup no hard border will be reinstated but we will have to wait and see if and how this shapes up.